The AP-Yahoo! News Poll is a unique study that will track the moods and opinions of a group of more than 2,700 people throughout the presidential election campaign. The study involves an extensive national survey of 2,714 people who will be re-contacted several times during the next year to see how their attitudes and opinions change over time. The survey is being conducted by Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, Calif., under the direction and supervision of AP's polling unit.
The survey is conducted online with a sample drawn from a panel of respondents Knowledge Networks recruited via random sampling of landline telephone households with listed and unlisted numbers. The company provides Web access to panel recruits who don't already have it. With a probability basis and coverage of people who otherwise couldn't access the Internet, the Knowledge Networks online surveys are nationally representative.
Results are weighted, or adjusted, to reflect the adult population by demographic factors such as age, sex, region, and education.
For the first release published in November based on the responses of 2,230 people from Nov. 2-12, no more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause results to vary more than plus or minus 2.1 percentage points from the answers that would have been obtained if all adults in the U.S. were surveyed. The sampling error margin is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for the sub-sample of 1,049 Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic party, 3.4 percentage points for the subsample of 827 Republicans and those who lean towards the Republican party.
For the second release published in December, based on the responses of 1,821 people from Dec. 14-20, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points for the sub-sample of 847 Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic party, 3.8 percentage points for the subsample of 655 Republicans and those who lean toward the Republican party.
For the third release published in January, based on the responses of 2,016 people between Jan. 18-28, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 3.2 percentage points for the sub-sample of 943 Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic party, 3.6 percentage points for Republicans and those who lean toward the Republican party.
For the fifth release published in June, based on the responses of 1,759 people between June 13-23, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points for the sub-sample of 844 Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic Party, 3.9 percentage points for the sub-sample of 637 Republicans and those who lean toward the Republican Party.
There are other, potentially greater, sources of variability in surveys, including the wording and order of the questions.
The questions and results for this poll will be available at http://news.yahoo.com/polls and at http://surveys.ap.org..
More technical information is available at http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp/reviewer-info.html.
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