Sarah Palin is still an unknown quantity when it comes to the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, but regardless of what her ultimate decision will be, the former Alaska governor seems to be doing well in the polls, maintaining a solid double-digit showing. Whether that number reflects her "true believers," as former White House chief of staff Karl Rove might call her supporters, or if it is a base from which she can make gains and be a viable candidate is also an unknown.
But Palin's late entrance -- if entering the presidential race she does -- could be a way of attempting to harness the announcement bump candidates usually receive just after they reveal their plans to run for office.
"I think people are still going to be coming and going because there is still time, and I'm still one of those still considering," Palin told Fox News on Tuesday evening, as relayed by CNN.
And there is something to her statement. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, himself once considered as a possible Republican candidate, noted Sunday in an interview with the New York Times that there was still time and he had personally tried to talk several people into running.
However, time is short for ballot application deadlines for caucus and primary states. Candidates entering the race now would need far more than just the hope of one day becoming president. And Sarah Palin has the name recognition, the finances, and most likely the people to put on the ground in early caucus and primary states to make a campaign more than just an exercise in futility.
The latest McClatchy poll shows President Barack Obama's recent slide in job approval has placed Palin within five points of the president (44 percent to his 49 percent) in a head-to-head matchup, far better than the 21 points she trailed by in August.
Could Palin be hoping for the post-announcement poll numbers bump to springboard her toward a possible win in Iowa in February?
The problem with post-announcement poll bumps is that they do not seem to last. Initial enthusiasm for the candidate wanes over time as the electorate becomes familiar with them and their policies.
Take a look at both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Both saw gains in the polls after formally declaring their candidacies. In fact, both became front-runners (Romney in June, Perry in August). But their leads soon diminished. Past campaigns have shown that after the field of presidential contenders is set, only major mistakes, debates, and candidates' departures from the race seem to have much of an effect on their polling percentages -- the latter having the most profound effect, especially if the candidate dropping out of contention is a frontrunner.
Palin's name recognition could also work as a drawback. Being a household name, so to speak, should she really expect much of a gain in her poll numbers?
But the McClatchy poll also revealed something that the former governor might take into consideration when she finally makes her announcement. By a margin of 72 percent to 24 percent, Republicans and independents that lean toward voting Republican say they do not want Palin to run for president.
It is a sentiment that seems to have remained consistent over time. A Fox News poll released at the beginning of September noted 71 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents said she should not enter the race.
The numbers are quite a bit higher than the 59 percent that told Gallup in December she wouldn't even be a consideration. Unfortunately for Sarah Palin, that number included all poll respondents, regardless of party affiliation.
It is doubtful a presidential announcement bump would do her much good in the long run -- if she could even manage one.
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