COMMENTARY | Not long ago the media told us Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich were shoo-ins. The question was who would take first and second in Iowa. Fast forward, and polls like RealClearPolitcs are showing Ron Paul with the lead and Rick Perry is gaining ground. What the heck happened to the sure bets?
Paul supporters say the lead has been there all along. His vast ground game is overwhelming the other candidates. Make no mistake, Paul's message of smaller government and fiscal responsibility is met with applause. Even his ideas of bringing the military home from around the world are popular in Iowa.
At this point in the presidential race, Perry's campaign should write Paul's ad people a thank you. Paul's scathing TV ads helped put Gingrich on the slide. Perry has helped himself by his positive ads running on Iowa networks.
He has been conducting telephone conversations with voters and is on a two-week bus tour of Iowa counties. The negativity between Romney and Gingrich has hurt them in Iowa. Meanwhile, Perry directs his anger at Barack Obama, and focuses on problems Iowans are facing.
Besides Paul's top position, Perry is now third or fourth in most of the polling. Pundits say Iowa is irrelevant if Paul wins, as he is a one-trick pony. Could a win in Iowa ignite the Paul ground teams in other states? Paul is a force to be reckoned with because of his staunch supporters. Maybe candidates should be reaching towards Paul instead of running away from him.
Perry, on the other hand, could be the dark horse in this race. If not nationally, at least he appears to be set to come from behind in Iowa. Why are people giving Perry a second look? His supporters do not mind that he is not the best debater.
They respect him for jobs and the economy in Texas, and for work he has done on the border. While Romney and Gingrich have chewed on each other, Perry's positive ads have helped him. Perry sticks to his message and he does one thing Romney and Gingrich do not. Perry freely admits to his mistakes. For instance, he said he wrong to try and mandate HPV shots.
Paul seems poised to take the win in Iowa. While Gingrich and Romney fight between themselves, Perry is slowly but surely sneaking up on them. Paul and Perry may well upset Romney and Gingrich as Iowa prepares for another surprising year at the caucuses.
- Politics & Government
- Politics & Government/Elections
- Ron Paul
- Newt Gingrich
- Mitt Romney
- Rick Perry