South Carolina is a bastion of good-ol'-boy conservatism, both red-state Republicans and blue dog Democrats. It is chock full of traditionalism, people who wish the South had won the Civil War, and evangelicals by the millions. And yet, oddly enough, the latest Winthrop Poll surveying the presidential preferences of South Carolinians places former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Mormon from up North, within three points of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a country boy and just a few states removed from being one of their own. How could it even be a close race?
According to a Winthrop University poll released on Sept. 20, Gov. Perry maintained a slight lead over former governor Romney, 30.5 percent to 27.3 percent. Although the lead was to be expected, what was not was the slim margin by which the Bible-pounding, cowboy boot-wearing Texan led polite, proper, and prep-school polished Michigander (Romney was born in Michigan). In fact, an earlier poll conducted by Public Policy Polling at the end of August, Perry crushed Romney by a spread of 20 percentage points (36-16). But that was before Perry stood against the other Republican contenders in a debate.
Perry apparently knows his limitations, ducking out of the Jim DeMint Labor Day Forum at the last second (claiming wildfires in Texas as far more important than a political Q-and-A), although the event was billed as simply as question-and-answer session for voters to better get to know the candidates. Romney, who had initially declined the invitation, made room in his schedule and appeared. Perhaps that helped his numbers somewhat as well.
But Perry got hammered at the very first debate he attended in California on Sept. 7, with Romney attacking him for his position on Social Security and his willingness to simply eliminate the program. At the second debate in September, this one in Florida, nearly the entire field turned on Perry, who had been the national poll front-runner -- and by double digits -- since announcing his candidacy in mid-August.
Not only did Romney again chastise him for his stance on Social Security, but Rep. Michele Bachmann brought up his 2007 scandal where he issued an executive order to have middle school-aged Texas girls vaccinated against HPV (Human papillomavirus), then alluded to crony capitalism with regard to inside ties with the company that manufactured the vaccine (Merck).
Fellow Texan Rep. Ron Paul deconstructed the myth of Perry as a jobs creator in Texas and attacked Perry's penchant for raising taxes. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum assailed Perry over his border and immigration policies.
That was on Sept. 12. Winthrop University conducted its poll from Sept. 11-18.
And Perry did himself no favors along the way, either. He told a 9-year-old at a campaign stop that the theory of evolution was a "theory that's out there." He also said if the Federal Reserve printed more money (something the Federal Reserve does not do), it would tantamount to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke committing "treason." In defending the campaign donation he got from Merck, he said it was a one-time donation of $5,000, but CBS News quickly exposed that Perry had taken far more than that from the only company that manufactured the only HPV vaccine on the market.
It probably did not help that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin backed Bachmann's attack on Perry, noting that rooting out crony capitalism was a difficult but necessary thing to do.
It would appear that the Republican voters of South Carolina were paying attention and did not like what they saw or heard. Or perhaps, since the polls were conducted by two separate polling agents, the relation between the 20 percent lead falling to 3 percent is nonexistent. To get a fairer report, two polls from the same pollster should be used.
Still, at the same time, Gov. Perry's numbers have been sliding in national polls as well. What once was a double-digit lead has fallen to single digits in the last handful of surveys.
Good ol' evangelical Southern boy or no, South Carolina Republicans seem to be sensing that backing Perry for president might not be such a good idea. Unfortunately for Perry, after the Fox News debate in Orlando, Fla., on Sept. 22, the Texas governor's dismal showing could see the next poll in the first primary state of the South not only reveal even less support for his campaign but completely tilt in Romney's favor.
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