COMMENTARY | And to think all it took was Jon Stewart chastising the national media for treating Ron Paul as if he was just an annoying voice in the room. A recent Gallup Poll not only indicates that the Texas Congressman is a viable Republican candidate for the 2012 GOP nomination, but that he is also considered more electable than the only person to garner more votes (than Paul) at the Ames Straw Poll held in mid-August -- Rep. Michele Bachmann.
Although the Gallup Poll, which was released on August 22, indicated that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had the best chance overall to defeat the incumbent Democratic president (Romney was the only Republican candidate to score better numbers than President Obama), Ron Paul polled only two points back of the President among registered voters (45 percent to 47 percent).
The margin of error for the survey was +/-4, which puts Paul within striking distance of a victory if pitted against Obama in a national election.
The interesting numbers in the poll seem to come from the party-affiliated respondents. A full 11 percent of Republican voters said they would vote for Obama if they had to choose between the two -- the highest percentage in the survey. The number, however, is offset by the number of Democrats who would defect and vote for Paul, which registered at 12 percent (also the highest percentage). Yet, among the important independent voters, those that candidates court more intensely due to their ability to shift an election (which would otherwise most likely remain fairly close and competitive along party lines), Paul also bests Obama by three points.
Minnesota Congresswoman Bachmann loses nationally to Obama by four points overall. She also loses the independent vote by six percentage points.
That makes him electable.
Back in February, when President Obama's approval ratings weren't as dismally low as they are currently and Donald Trump told the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that Ron Paul could not win a national election (Paul subsequently won the CPAC straw poll), it might have appeared that the libertarian representative who also ran for president in 2008 would have a difficult time stepping outside his base of supporters, which constantly placed him with about 10 percent of the Republican electorate in polls. And that might have continued, even after Paul finished a strong second to Bachmann in the Iowa straw poll (she won by 152 votes). However, with national attention brought on by the national media's inattention to and outright dismissal of his candidacy, Paul's campaign seems to have gained political life that it did not exhibit before.
But can his campaign sustain its newfound momentum? Paul, known to be a fiscal conservative with set views on balancing the federal budget, getting America's military out of its foreign war involvements, and reducing the size and intrusiveness of the federal government across the board, would seem to be exactly the candidate that the GOP is looking for (especially given that his political positions are at the core of the tea party movement), yet has been generally ignored by his own party. If he can gain stronger support within his own party (only 82 percent; even Bachmann fares better with 86 percent) while contenders like Bachmann and Texas governor Rick Perry continue to make gaffes and policy mistakes, he may find himself in a dead-heat tie in a race for the Republican nomination with Mitt Romney.
Still, the poll numbers do not say Ron Paul will win the GOP nomination or a general election against President Obama. But they do say he can. And that's more than could have -- or even would have -- been said by most -- especially in the national media -- just a few days ago.
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