With the Republican National Convention at the halfway point, four new polls taken on the eve of the convention show President Barack Obama with the lead in the two northeastern states of Connecticut and New Jersey. National polls continue to show Obama with a narrow lead. Will Mitt Romney enjoy a "convention bounce"? Only time will tell.
Connecticut
A newly released poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP), taken last week, shows Obama with a 13-point lead over Romney, 53 to 40 percent. The poll surveyed 881 registered voters. Another poll released this week by Quinnipac also had Obama in the lead, but by a smaller 7-point margin, 52 to 45 percent.
Iowa
A second PPP poll, taken in Iowa, also gave Obama a narrow lead. The poll surveyed 1,244 likely voters between Aug. 23-26. Obama had a 2-point lead over Romney, 47 to 45 percent. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Two previous PPP polls found Obama with leads of 5 and 10 points, greater than the margins of error in each. In a statement released with the poll, Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling said, "Barack Obama's lead in Iowa has steadily declined in our polling over the last three months. He still has a narrow advantage, but it's clear that the state deserves its perceived swing state status."
New Jersey
The latest poll of the Garden State shows Obama well ahead of Romney. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll, conducted Aug. 23-25, surveyed 710 likely voters. The president lead the former governor by 14 points, 51 to 37 percent, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent. "The president leads in New Jersey primarily because of his personal qualities," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University, in a statement released with the results. "Voters like him better and feel he shares their values and cares about them. While Romney keeps it closer on the hard issue of the economy, and wins easily on leadership, voters generally prefer to support someone they like over someone they don't." Obama hasn't trailed any Republican candidate in any presidential poll in New Jersey going back to last year.
National Polls
Both the Gallup and Rasmussen Tracking polls show Obama with a 1-point lead over Romney nationally. The Gallup poll had Obama at 47 to 46 percent for Romney. The three day tracking poll surveys more than 3,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2 percent. Rasmussen polled Obama at 46 percent and Romney at 45 percent, but cautioned that their poll results were taken before the biggest speeches at the Republican National Convention, and a better picture will not emerge until after the Republican National Convention this week and the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., next week.
