How bad is the Republicans' demographic problem? See for yourself (Interactive)

By Chris Wilson

Just to get out ahead of the pack a little, I’mgoing to go ahead and call the 2020 presidential election for the Democrats.

I'm less sure about 2016, though it's not looking good for the GOP. These forecasts are based on extremely simple math: Take thecurrent rates of turnout and party preference for the four major racial andethnic groups and plug them in to the Census Bureau’s population projectionsfor the 18-and-over population for the next 50 years.

If you simply project the present into the future, then it’s pretty clear that Democrats havethis thing in the bag—"thing" referring to the future of democracy. But we can assume that the future will not look exactly like the present, which is why this widget allows you to manipulate the percentages of each group that turn out to vote and which party they vote for. It’s when you start messing with the dials in thisinteractive that you realize the massive amount of trouble the GOP faces if itdoes not change its image with minority voters—or, as we'll soon be callingthem, “plurality voters.” Here, you can try it yourself:

You will notice that the default turnout rates, from the 2012 election, are very low for Hispanic- andAsian-Americans. This is because we’re measuring voter turnout for the entirevoting age population, including those who are not citizens or are otherwiseineligible to vote. Going forward, a significantly larger proportion of bothdemographics will have been born in the U.S. As the Pew HispanicCenter wrote in a studyof the Hispanic electorate published shortly after the 2012 election, “Thatvast majority (93%) of Latino youths are U.S-born citizens and thus willautomatically become eligible to vote once they turn 18.” The report wastitled “An Awakened Giant.”

Even a few ticks upward in Hispanic turnout have majorbenefits for the Democratic Party, which stands to draw less than half itssupport from non-Hispanic white voters by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, theRepublicans don’t have a tremendous amount of ground left to gain among whitevoters, who will shrink both in total numbers and as a share of the electoratein the coming elections.

Predictions are easy to mock. In recent elections, however, partisanship by racial and ethnic background has remained highly predictable in the face of countless calamities. The demographics of the electorate are going to change sorapidly in the next eight years that politics will seem unrecognizable, but these party loyalties may very well be intact. This fact is not difficult to recognize whatsoever.

  • Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage increases

    A look at the 10 biggest percentage gainers on Nasdaq at the close of trading: Paratek Pharm rose 29.1 percent to $16.00. WisdomTree Investments Inc. rose 26.0 percent to $14.75. Scientific Games Corp. ...

  • Kurdish peshmerga forces enter Syria's Kobani after further air strikes
    Kurdish peshmerga forces enter Syria's Kobani after further air strikes

    By Humeyra Pamuk and Raheem Salman SURUC Turkey/BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A convoy of Iraqi Kurdish forces in Turkey rolled late on Friday across the border into Syria to help Syrian Kurds defend the besieged town of Kobani that has become the focus of a Western-backed war against Islamic State insurgents. U.S.-led air strikes hit Islamic State positions around Kobani earlier in the day in an apparent effort to pave the way for the heavily-armed Kurdish contingent to enter. ...

  • Drivers scramble for flying cash on Md. highway
    Drivers scramble for flying cash on Md. highway

    URBANA, Md. (AP) — Drivers scrambled to grab money flying around a Maryland highway after an armored truck's door burst open.

  • UN: Growing number of foreigners in terror groups
    UN: Growing number of foreigners in terror groups

    UNITED NATIONS (AP) — A new United Nations report says the world faces a challenge of foreign fighters in terror groups on an "unprecedented scale," with about 15,000 in Syria and Iraq alone.

  • Graham: Remark about helping white men was joke
    Graham: Remark about helping white men was joke

    COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham's remark at a private, all-male dinner about mainly helping white men if he became president was a joke taken out of context, his campaign said Thursday.

  • Study: Mislabeled shrimp at restaurants, grocers
    Study: Mislabeled shrimp at restaurants, grocers

    NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Ever thought that big, pink Gulf coast shrimp you ordered at the restaurant or bought from the store didn't taste juicy or salty enough?

  • How a tech-savvy grandma is trying to lead Kansas Democrats out of the wilderness
    How a tech-savvy grandma is trying to lead Kansas Democrats out of the wilderness

    In 2010, a historic Election Day sweep in Kansas saw Democrats lose every statewide office. Many people wrote them off for dead, but Joan Wagnon reused to believe it. Now the 74-year-old state chair is using technology to rebuild and modernize the party.

  • Earhart Search: Underwater 'Lump' May Be Wreckage from Lost Plane
    Earhart Search: Underwater 'Lump' May Be Wreckage from Lost Plane

    The hunt for Amelia Earhart's lost plane will continue next summer. An underwater "anomaly" detected off the coast of the tiny Pacific atoll Nikumaroro could be the wreckage of Earhart's aircraft, as it is the right size and in the right location, according to the International Group For Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR). In June 2015, the group plans to sail a research vessel to Nikumaroro for a a 24-day expedition to investigate the anomaly with a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), while divers will search the surrounding reef for other possible bits of wreckage; Earhart disappeared in 1937 along with her navigator Fred Noonan during an attempt to fly around the world.

Follow Yahoo! News

Loading...