How bad is the Republicans' demographic problem? See for yourself (Interactive)

By Chris Wilson

Just to get out ahead of the pack a little, I’mgoing to go ahead and call the 2020 presidential election for the Democrats.

I'm less sure about 2016, though it's not looking good for the GOP. These forecasts are based on extremely simple math: Take thecurrent rates of turnout and party preference for the four major racial andethnic groups and plug them in to the Census Bureau’s population projectionsfor the 18-and-over population for the next 50 years.

If you simply project the present into the future, then it’s pretty clear that Democrats havethis thing in the bag—"thing" referring to the future of democracy. But we can assume that the future will not look exactly like the present, which is why this widget allows you to manipulate the percentages of each group that turn out to vote and which party they vote for. It’s when you start messing with the dials in thisinteractive that you realize the massive amount of trouble the GOP faces if itdoes not change its image with minority voters—or, as we'll soon be callingthem, “plurality voters.” Here, you can try it yourself:

You will notice that the default turnout rates, from the 2012 election, are very low for Hispanic- andAsian-Americans. This is because we’re measuring voter turnout for the entirevoting age population, including those who are not citizens or are otherwiseineligible to vote. Going forward, a significantly larger proportion of bothdemographics will have been born in the U.S. As the Pew HispanicCenter wrote in a studyof the Hispanic electorate published shortly after the 2012 election, “Thatvast majority (93%) of Latino youths are U.S-born citizens and thus willautomatically become eligible to vote once they turn 18.” The report wastitled “An Awakened Giant.”

Even a few ticks upward in Hispanic turnout have majorbenefits for the Democratic Party, which stands to draw less than half itssupport from non-Hispanic white voters by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, theRepublicans don’t have a tremendous amount of ground left to gain among whitevoters, who will shrink both in total numbers and as a share of the electoratein the coming elections.

Predictions are easy to mock. In recent elections, however, partisanship by racial and ethnic background has remained highly predictable in the face of countless calamities. The demographics of the electorate are going to change sorapidly in the next eight years that politics will seem unrecognizable, but these party loyalties may very well be intact. This fact is not difficult to recognize whatsoever.

  • US Air Force's Secretive X-37B Space Plane Passes 600 Days in Orbit
    US Air Force's Secretive X-37B Space Plane Passes 600 Days in Orbit

    Air Force's mysterious unmanned space plane has winged beyond 600 days in orbit on a classified military mission that seems to have no end. The X-37B space plane is carrying out the Orbital Test Vehicle-3 (OTV-3) mission, a long-duration cruise that marks the third flight for the unpiloted Air Force spaceflight program. The Air Force launched the miniature space shuttle into orbit on Dec. 11, 2012 using an expendable Atlas 5 rocket. By the end of Friday (Aug. 29), the space plane had spent 627 days in orbit.

  • Ukraine rebels say they are poised to recapture Donetsk airport

    By Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska BRUSSELS/DONETSK Ukraine (Reuters) - EU officials proposed sanctions on Tuesday to starve Russian firms of cash as punishment for Moscow's role in Ukraine, where rebels said they were storming Donetsk airport, potentially their biggest prize since turning the war's tide last week. Western countries accuse Moscow of sending armored columns of troops into Ukraine, where the momentum in a five-month war shifted last week decisively in favor of pro-Russian rebels, who are now advancing on a new front towards a major port. Russia denies its troops are involved in fighting on the ground, in the face of what Western countries and Ukraine say is overwhelming evidence. In Washington, Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby estimated there were thousands of Russian forces inside Ukraine.

  • AP Analysis: Putin digs in for long Ukraine fight
    AP Analysis: Putin digs in for long Ukraine fight

    MOSCOW (AP) — Riding a wave of military gains by Russia-backed rebels, President Vladimir Putin has made it exceedingly clear that he wants a peace deal for Ukraine on his terms and will not be stopped by economic costs.

  • Patrolling the Rio Grande: On the front lines with a U.S. border patrol agent

    For border patrol along the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, intercepting migrants is daily business

  • Scientists use E.coli bacteria to create fossil fuel alternative
    Scientists use E.coli bacteria to create fossil fuel alternative

    British and Finnish scientists have found a way of generating renewable propane using a bacterium widely found in the human intestine and say the finding is a step to commercial production of a fuel that could one day be an alternative to fossil fuel reserves. "Although we have only produced tiny amounts so far, the fuel we have produced is ready to be used in an engine straight away," said Patrik Jones of the department of life sciences at Imperial College London, who worked on the research. He said while work is at a very early stage, possibly 5-10 years from the point where commercial production would be possible, his team's findings were proof of concept for a way of producing renewable fuel now only accessible from fossil reserves. It is already produced as a by-product during natural gas processing and petrol refining, but both of these are fossil fuels that will one day run out.

  • CVS changes name, stops tobacco sales early
    CVS changes name, stops tobacco sales early

    As CVS sharpens its focus on customer health, the nation's second-largest drugstore chain will tweak its corporate name and stop the sale of tobacco nearly a month sooner than planned. CVS Caremark said ...

  • If millennials are jerks, blame the baby boomers
    If millennials are jerks, blame the baby boomers

    Young adults might be self-absorbed and fragile, but they had to get that from somebody.

  • Ukraine economy at risk, may need another bailout
    Ukraine economy at risk, may need another bailout

    BRUSSELS (AP) — While Ukraine's leaders are trying to win the war against Russian-backed separatists in the east, they appear to be losing the battle to resurrect the country's battered economy.

Follow Yahoo! News

Loading...