Preseason Injury Quick Hits
Sports Injury Predictor has partnered with Rotoworld in 2015 to give you an even greater chance of winning your league this coming season. As a quick introduction we have an algorithm that figures out which players are more likely to get injured in the coming season. Follow us on Twitter @injurypredictor and check out our injury search engine here for the complete injury history and probability for every player in the NFL.
Draft season is kicking off and for most of us we are getting to that point of no return where decisions must be made on who we are considering at various rounds of the draft. There should be a huge focus on hitting those first round picks that will at the least meet the draft capital being invested in them. Evaluating risk and making sure you have a plan in place to mitigate the impact of these risks should unfortunate events occur is what will win you your fantasy football championship.
We did an article a few weeks ago that showed there is a very high incidence of injury recurrence when players get injured in the preseason. The crux of the piece of work we did focused on premier players who got injured in the preseason and how much more likely they were to get injured than those players who were not injured in the preseason. The takeaway was if a top tier player gets hurt in the preseason there is a 77% chance that they will get injured again at some point during the regular season.
Here is the breakdown of types of injuries that have taken place so far:
Total injuries: 73
Hamstring injuries
Hamstring injuries accounted for 38% of all preseason injuries. According to Medicinet.com hamstring injuries typically are caused by rapid acceleration activities when running or initiating running activity. Hamstring injuries are common in sports such as soccer, football and track. Injuries to the hamstring group of muscles can range from a minor strain to a major rupture. A minor strain is classified as a grade I tear, whereas a complete rupture, or tear, is classified as a grade III tear. Grade II tears are partial ruptures.
Below is a list of notable players who suffered from hamstring injuries (date of injury in parenthesis) along with some analysis as to how this affected their injury probability for the season.
Odell Beckham (6/1/15)
Significance: Medium
OBJ injured his right hamstring in OTAs and missed most of the offseason program along with the minicamp that followed afterwards. The injury was to his right leg which is the opposite leg than the one he injured last preseason. While he has been able to take part fully in the preseason and has not missed a beat with some great plays on the field the fact that he has struggled in the past with his hamstrings and that he is going so high up on draft boards makes this a mild concern.
LeSean McCoy (8/19/15):
Significance: High
So after spending his offseason throwing huge parties and weird tweets McCoy went down with a severe hamstring injury two weeks ago. You know it’s bad when the first thing uttered by the head coach is “don’t worry he didn’t tear the muscle from the bone”. Clearly they were worried that it was a very severe injury. Also, according to Dr. Jene Bremel of Footballguys.com images of Shady lying on the ground after the injury show him holding his leg high up near his buttocks rather than in the middle of the thigh. Strains at the end of the muscle are usually by the tendons and can take a long time to heal.
Either way, McCoy has not been seen on the field since and was not even close to suiting up for the two preseason games that followed.
Bad offensive scheme, reduced opportunity in the passing game, terrible QB situation and now a severe injury that has a high chance of recurrence. Avoid.
Dez Bryant (8/11/15)
Significance: Medium
Bryant sat out for two weeks after injuring his hamstring at the start of camp. We haven’t gotten a look at him this preseason and hamstring injuries to top tier players are worrisome due to the heightened chance of recurrence. We’re not recommending a fade by any means, Bryant has a legitimate shot to finish off the year as the number one wideout in the league. However, it’s something worth monitoring as we get closer to kick-off.
Darren McFadden (6/1/15 and 7/30/15)
Significance: Medium
McFadden getting injured should be about as surprising as snowfall in Minnesota. He has a very high chance of getting injured this season, previous hamstring injury in the offseason or not. It’s also worth adding that DMC is also easily one of the slowest healers in the league.
If we stepped into a time-machine and went back to 2012 when Run DMC was a top 10 overall pick it would be a problem. However in 2015 McFadden is basically free, playing behind a very beatable “starter” in Joseph Randle on an explosive offensive line. The discount you’re getting due to his injury likelihood actually makes him a bargain. He has looked electric in the last two preseason games and may only last a few weeks in the regular season but could very well be this year’s version of Ahmad Bradshaw.
Tre Mason (8/1/15 and 8/30/15)
Significance: High
Mason was primed to establish himself as the lead back with Gurley still rehabbing his knee and the Rams front office intent on bringing their new feature back in slowly as he recovers. Mason hurt his hamstring at the start of the preseason and then aggravated it again in the third preseason game. Mason has been listed as questionable for Week 1 by the coaching staff and his grip on the starting job may have already been loosened before Gurley even stepped on the field.
Knee Injuries
We included all injuries to the knee in this set of players and we have those who have suffered injuries to their meniscus, PCL, MCL and ACL. ACL injuries are season-ending and won’t be covered here but the other injuries usually allow a player to make their way back depending on the severity of the injury.
C.J. Spiller (8/12/15)
Significance: Medium
Spiller underwent arthroscopic surgery mid-August to clean out his knee. This type of surgery is performed in the event of ACL reconstruction, Microfracture surgery or to repair damage to the meniscus. We’re going with meniscus damage here as both of the other types of procedures would be season-ending.
The procedure was described by coaching staff as “not serious” which is usually how you describe a surgical procedure when it’s being done on someone else. All talk out of the Saints’ organization has pointed to the fact that Spiller will be ready Week 1. It’s going to be a roll of the dice at best and he should be considered questionable (50/50) for the start of the season.
Joique Bell (January)
Significance: High
Bell had two surgeries early in the offseason. One was to clean out his Achilles and the other was to perform some kind of non-specified procedure on his knee. Bell has been on the sidelines all offseason and only just started taking part in non-contact drills last week. Two things about this raise concerns. The first and most obvious is what could have held him out for so long? One of the ideas floating around is that he had microfracture surgery. His recovery is pretty much on schedule if he had the surgery in January and been planned to require a 7-9 month recovery period. If it was in fact this type of surgery the chance of reinjury is high considering he is on the shorter end of the recovery window. The other concern is that while everyone else has had since June to get into game shape, Bell is only beginning to start getting ready now. This exposes him to conditioning-related risks such as hamstring and other types of soft tissue injury as he attempts to play catchup to everyone on the field named Ameer Abdullah.
Breshad Perriman (8/5/15)
Significance: High
Perriman originally came down with what was described as a “knee bruise” right at the start of training camp. It later transpired that he had in fact torn his PCL. Coach Harbaugh said on 8/27 that his recovery had gone slower than “expected” and he had no timetable on his return. PCL tears are a tough injury to come back from and continue to play through and there is a good chance we will not see Perriman on the field until much later in the season.
As fantastic as the situation is in Baltimore feel free to drop him from your draft board in redraft leagues.
LeGarrette Blount and Lorenzo Taliaferro
Significance: Low
Both players sprained their MCLs in the preseason. Blount has since made his way back with no ill effects and Zo Taliaferro is yet to resume practicing. NFL players are usually able to come back from low grade MCL tears fairly easily with a low probability of recurrence.
They should both be fine once the season gets underway.
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Calf Injuries
Calf injuries are one of the most difficult soft tissue injuries NFL players can suffer. The calf muscle is used in every aspect of the game and weakness in that area can lead to other injuries along the way, most likely to the hamstring.
Alshon Jeffery (8/11/15)
Significance: High
I own a ton of Jeffery shares and to be quite honest I am very nervous about one of two scenarios playing out. In one, the injury is way more severe than we know and he could be out for several weeks of the regular season. In the second scenario, the time off from training has sapped his conditioning – as the unrivaled target hog on a weekly play-from-behind kind of team he needs to be in tip top shape. Anything less is going to mean injuries down the line.
Victor Cruz (8/20/15)
Significance: High
Cruz is coming off a patellar tear that he suffered last season. The patellar tear is a very rare and extremely difficult injury to come back from. Cruz has seen some action in preseason games and reports from training camp have been glowing as you would expect them to be. In the latest update, he is no longer certain he will play in Week 1. The calf injury could be a calf injury or it could be swelling he is dealing with in his knee that is being referred to as something else. To that end the swollen “calf” was reported in the same week that all restrictions were removed from Cruz’s training regimen. Pulled calf muscle or something knee related?
Either way whatever it’s worrisome and even at his 9th round ADP there are way better options for you to take.
David Cobb (8/25/15)
Significance: High
Whatever push Cobb may have been making on Sankey for the starting role, Bish just got a huge break. Cobb has been seen in a walking boot and is being referred to by the media as a week-to-week case rather than a day-to-day. With no one except Dexter McCluster to take touches away from him Sankey might be in for a decent sized workload.
Conclusion:
You don’t want to see your starters limited in the offseason or the preseason. It usually does not bode well. Some players such as Spiller are being drafted at a huge discount due to the injury while others’ draft prices have remained pretty constant (e.g., Jeffery). This should allow you to look for and exploit inefficiencies in the marketplace as you fade players like McCoy completely and allow him to become someone else’s problem.
For more information check out our site www.sportsinjurypredictor.com, follow us on Twitter @injurypredictor or get in touch with jake@sportsinjurypredictor.com.
