COMMENTARY | Leaving the domestic politics of the Libyan war aside, there are certain things about the Libya conflict even an armchair warrior wouldn't fail to notice.
Command and Control
Successful military operations depend on a unified command and control. Command and control of the Libya operation is not clear, with NATO delaying the "handoff" that President Barack Obama announced in his speech Monday night. The delay is described as temporary, and expected to last only a day.
NATO Sea Blockade
A NATO sea blockade of Libya is in effect. It will prevent arms and war materiel from reaching Gadhafi's forces, but delay shipments of food and fuel to Libyan civilians. Shippers worry that their vessels and crews may suffer collateral damage either from mistakes or from being fired upon by Gadhafi's artillery.
Ground Forces
The Libyan rebels are untrained, a ragtag army operating with little coordination. Without advancing behind a wave of U.N bombing, it doesn't advance at all. The Libyan rebels were recently driven off in panic from Sirte by forces loyal to Gadhafi.
President Obama has emphatically denied that he would put U.S. ground forces into Libya. The U.N. could put ground troops into Libya, but would not be enthusiastic about that option. The remaining hope for ground fighting may come from organized al-Qaida or Islamist militant forces infiltrating from other war-torn countries.
Underestimating Gadhafi
The U.S. and coalition bombing campaign was accurate, stunning, destructive in scope and grandeur. It delivered precisely what President Obama ordered, and then some. On the other hand, Gadhafi may be many things, and most of them are not flattering, but he is a military commander.
In a ground war, there are a great number of effective small unit actions which can easily counter untrained, unorganized rebel factions. Gadhafi could defeat the Libyan opposition with a small surviving part his army.
Bottom Line
Unless a covert special team or internal elements "neutralize" Gadhafi or force him to quit, Libya will need outside forces to fight its battles. Gadhafi will gain propaganda advantages of any collateral damage, and by depicting Libya as the victim of outside "Crusader" forces. With massive coalition air power, it may be impossible for Gadhafi to win. But without professional troops on the ground, it may also be impossible for him to lose.
Anthony Ventre is a freelance writer who has written for several weekly and daily newspapers, for Demand Studios, and for AOL Online. He is a former news director for radio station KPEN in Los Altos, Calif. He enjoys news and business writing.
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