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    You Better Pray The Great Stagnation Is Not The Great Depression

    Deficit cutting, better known as budget balancing in the 1930-32 period, was the worst possible medicine for the American economy. So was budget balancing in 1937 by FDR, as the New Deal mistakenly turned on a dime and cut back the spending programs that were keeping the formerly  unemployed employed in some form or fashion. Each time, the reduction in spending had a multiplier effect on economic activity; downward that is.

    Now comes Barack Obama and his and the deficit- cutting team of  Boehner and Reid and all their sidekicks. With the economy sagging, unemployment at 9.2%, housing in a virtual depression, the consumer barely increasing his purchases comes the cult of deficit-cutting.

    Well, it's  what the  Geo-Economic team at the Council on Foreign Relations calls "plans for having plans." Here's what CFR just sent me. Read it slowly. "Raising the debt ceiling without a credible deficit-cutting arrangement  still poses real risks of imminent danger to financial markets."

    Concentrate fiercely now! "Debt ceilings and rating agencies will drive us into a major economic crisis if Congress doesn't take serious action now."

    "A major economic crisis if Congress doesn't take serious action now."

    Maybe another day or two of 200 point losses in the Dow will concentrate minds. Remember that 800 point drop when TARP was rejected in the fall of 2008?   It got the nays to vote aye. Wall Street was bailed out. The world was saved.  The markets would recover.

    On the other hand, serious action to cut spending cuts the flow of services to the nation; it slows the economy even more; it puts more people out of work. It may boomerang into some repeat of Hoover or Roosevelt in 1937. That could be even more serious than a debt downgrading or even a temporary default.

    You better pray that the Great Stagnation won't be as bad as the Great Depression.

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    98 comments

    • fricknfarm  •  10 mths ago
      thing IS back in the 30's, people actually had to WORK for their benefits and ALL OF the US WAS BETTER off for it. The TVA which provided electricity to the rural poor in a VERY depress area, the Hoover Dam which supplied water AND electricity out west, roads were built and infrastructure developed. Money was NOT just passed out among the extraordinarily rich (Wall Street) nor handed over to the underclass without WORK. My own family history for that era...Immigrants from Europe (grandparents on both sides) took NOTHING from the "government"...BIG families too. One side had a small farm AND my grandfather work on projects like public buildings as a mason. The other side, my grandfather was ill with a disabling bone disease, so my grandmother worked. When my dad was 14 he went to sea on a freighter so he could live for free and send his pay home. His brother, my uncle when he turned 14 a few years later went to TN to work at a CC camp. His pay all went home to his family except for $5 a month he was allowed to keep. Two IMMIGRANT families made it thru the depression WITH NO GVT AID, now Americans born and raised here want handouts, both the filthy rich and the generational welfare folks.
      We need to realize, NO ONE deserves a 100 million dollar salary, and no one is entitled to money/goods/housing/food without WORK. It just isn't working.
      Figure it out...the MIDDLE CLASS is the backbone of any society. They BUY from those who are very rich, enriching them further, they are TAXED to supply the underclass, and the GOVERNMENT is the middle man, collecting money to grease it's wheels.
      When the middle class runs out of money, it will come to a grinding halt..Make no mistake, the GOVERNMENT IS SPENDING YOUR MONEY... that figure in the trillions represents the GOVERNMENTS ability to MAKE YOU PAY, and make you pay that bill is just what they will do.
      • Tobie 10 mths ago
        The deficit is NOT caused by the fed govt giving money to people who don't work. How simple is your mind? Do you have any idea how much Cheney's wars in the middle east cost? Republicans NEVER want to talk about those costs do they.
      • Nate 10 mths ago
        Great post. Unfortunately, this is the beauty of capitalism. The rich get richer while everyone else gets poorer. And for some unknown reason, people will continue to say how good it is that we're in a capitalistic society. (Ask yourself, if the benefit to this system is that anyone can become a millionaire, why aren't you a millionaire?)
      • winnieviola 10 mths ago
        Fricknfarm, did your uncle work at the camp in Pamona/Crossville? He probably knew my grandpa then.
    • sierra  •  10 mths ago
      Many people had good jobs throughout the depression. Those were the ones who said it really wasn't all that bad. Of course the unemployed had a very very different view. Sorta like today.
      • winnieviola 10 mths ago
        My family was already poor. They were mostly self-sufficient. The Depression didn't make a difference to them because they didn't depend on currency anyway. They had gardens and a few animals. They even knew how to make their own chairs, brooms, and tools. They also sewed their own clothes.
      • fricknfarm 10 mths ago
        Winnie, I have done those same things myself...no brooms tho, I wouldn't know where to begin on those. I have stripped off roofs and reroofed a house in my 50's, did the new siding too, built decks and barns, well into my 50's and raised lambs and still have a herd of goats in my 60's. Nothing is as satisfying as sitting at the dining room table (thrift store) eating a pizza (I made it all, even the cheese) in the house I built (well all but the shell) for cash...Hard work and thrift and doing things that are difficult...they pay off in more than just dollars, they pay off in SELF ESTEEM. Your family might have been poor, but I'll bet they were honest and hardworking and proud of those qualities. Self respect is often a matter of hard work and integrity...bet they didn't need anti-depressants or sleeping aids either..and they made GREAT roll models!.
    • Gray Lady  •  10 mths ago
      This is not rocket science. (1) Cut the failed Departments like Education, Energy and the EPA by 90% so that there are only small teams to manage important issues (like atomic energy regulation) - that saves just over $1 trillion over ten years. Cut every other federal department by a minimum of 10% - that's another $700 billion from the DoD alone. Cut all Congressional staff by 50% - that saves money upfront and saves a lot in the future since they won't have as many staffers to draft bills - so many of which just spend money we don't have or add bureaucracy that costs everyone money.

      No compromise! Just stop the profligate spending!
      • HollyDolly 10 mths ago
        You're right.You can see this same song and dance at the lower levels of government, like school districts. They whine and moan about funding from the states,etc.and how they have no money,But they can spend 18K to buy equipment for a highschool weight room ,and 7k for rubber flooring for said room.
        Why, because football is king in Texas.They hire people at the top levels, but expect low level peons to do double the work, yet can't provide any sort of raise to said peons.Stop forgein aid.Cut these failed departments,etc as you mentioned.But it will never happen.Maybe people we need to sharpen the axes and pitchfork tines, and light the torches and march to Washington.
      • fricknfarm 10 mths ago
        Education... it is a joke. The federal GVT has really made a MESS there. IF we go back to the old paradigm of LOCAL taxes paying for education and LOCAL control, (in theory we have this now, but in practice NOT) WITHOUT FED manipulation using FED funds as the carrot things MIGHT get back to schools providing EDUCATION. Witness the scandal in Atlanta with the manipulation of test scores resulting in the school superintendent getting bonus adding up to $660.000 in addition to her $400,000 yearly salary.
        THIS is what big GVT is about, waste, graft, cheating and lies...AND a job POORLY DONE...
        EPA which environment are they protecting? Seems that things have gone from bad to worse with oil spills and wild fires in the news, along with new diseases caused by agribusiness dumping waste in the waterways..like Chesapeake Bay and the Santee River.
        Department of Energy, I couldn't even BEGIN to cite their failures..

        What we NEED is LESS GVT, but the GVT seems to be convincing the public we need MORE...I cannot figure it out...they seem to point out a 'problem' hand the news media a script, then announce we need more 'regulation' as a solution. If the public doesn't jump on board immediately, a few more problems (like ecoli) will convince them.
        We have PLENTY of laws and regulations...our GVT doesn't want to enforce the old ones that would work just fine...no, they want to institute NEW ones, for the NEW WORLD ORDER compliance.
      • Gorma 10 mths ago
        Your numbers are all wrong. Your suggested cuts to Dept of Education, the EPA, and Department of Energy would essentially do nothing. Althogether, these three agencies represent less than 2.5 % of the budget. I think getting rid of these agencies would have disastrous effects. The EPA enforces important laws such as the clean air and clean water act. Do you really want corporations to have a free hand in polluting the environment just because it saves them money? What about the increased costs in healthcare that would likely occur due to bad air and unsafe water. This would lead to increases in asthma, bronchitis, emphysema, and cancer related illnesses as well as increases in the cost of healthcare and overall losses in productivity in the workforce due to illness. Department of Energy regulates nuclear facilities and conducts safety inspections. Do we want another Chernobyl here in the U.S.? Just look at what happened in Japan. The earthquake and subsequent reactor meltdown has cost them tens of billions of dollars, if not more. To quote one of our founding fathers, Benjamin Franklin, "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." Department of Education deals with student loans. I went to law school on federally guaranteed student loans. I am paying 7.5% on my student loans, the principal balance is $110,000 over 30 years. The promissory note is owned by a private corporation that is making money off of the interest, and creating income for the bank. This income is then taxed. The Department of Education actually costs tax payers nothing in the longrun because through my education, my income is increased, which I pay taxes on. If not for the fact that the loans are federally guaranteed, no bank would loan money for educational loans because they're unsecured. Without student loans, nobody but the wealthiest of the wealthy would be able to afford an education. This would mean a less educated, less productive workforce, generating less income for themselves and the economy as a whole. Now think of a country in which these federally guaranteed student loans did not exist. How many potential doctors could afford the $40,000 a year tuition for Duke Medical School? How many fewer engineers would we have to develope the technology to take us into the next century, all because they couldn't afford to go to MIT and no bank would give them a $100,000 dollar unsecured, unguaranteed loan for their Masters in Engineering? Only the wealthiest of the wealthy would be able to afford a college eduation. These agencies represent a tiny portion of the federal budget from which we, as a whole and some of us individually, derive great benefits over the long term. If you think it through, it's more expensive not to have these programs.
    • Joseph  •  10 mths ago
      Those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it.
    • Wallio S  •  10 mths ago
      feels like a depression to me .has for a long time
    • vlad the impaler  •  10 mths ago
      lol This is the second great depression!!!!!!
      • Contrary to popular opini ... 10 mths ago
        Call it more like # 5 or 6, because this country has been through a number of major depressions or panics (19th century terminology) before. This sort of thing happens every 40-80 years, and each one is started by a credit fiasco.
    • Gun Runner 1861  •  10 mths ago
      The "sensationalized" media is at it again. Ya know, through ALL of this mess, nobody seems to have really done any "Root Cause Analysis".....that is, finding out the True Cause of all this economic strife and disaster. So, I did my own Root Cause Analysis.....

      I won't burden you with the process or the details, but the Crux of the Whole Problem is GREED, compounded with Mismanagement on a Grand Scale. Figure it out for yourself, and you will see it Perfectly....

      Deregulation allowed the Wall Street and Big Bank shysters to run wild. They bought off anybody they needed in the "government" in order to get their way (more money at the expense of the Common Citizen), and with only millionaires in positions of authority, Reality for the situation is not even in the picture for any of them. The motto for these low-life scabs is "I've Got Mine and Up Yours!"

      They don't need to worry about whether they can afford the day-to-day costs of managing a household, gasoline, food, utilities, vehicle operational costs, mortgage payments, or anything else - like the rest of us One-Feather Indians in this Tribe. They just continue to line their own pockets and play the game of "who can get the most digits in their bank account balance".....

      Oh, they are quick to point out that we have "choices"....we can Vote Them Out! Well, La-Dee-DAH.....!!! And what purpose does THAT serve? All we have to choose from to replace them is the next batch of perfectly-coiffed, tie-wearing, double-talking, self-serving millionaires who don't give a happy damm for anyone but themselves, either.....

      So, it is Never-Ending.....or so it would seem. They think they "Got It Made".....but so many millions of others who struggle daily to put food on the dining room table and meet the payments on a home that is no longer worth anything are beginning to have other ideas....

      And someday, somebody out here in the "masses" is going to SNAP and all heII will break loose.....Be Ready, America.....!!!
    • Contrary to popular opini ...  •  10 mths ago
      So much talk of crisis. The whole deal in congress now is about reducing the overspending on a ten year basis from 15 trillion to maybe 11 trillion. We will continue to overspend like a drunken sailor.
    • tina  •  10 mths ago
      Those of you that say Obama should put a shovel in our hands to make us work(the laid off, unemployed, disabled?) wold love to have a shovel in our hands. I for one have spent many a day at work shoveling and am not afraid of hard work-something that many in Washington know nothing about. What most people fail to realize or don't care to, is that, unless you are going to pay a good wage I will still qualify for food stamps and medicaid. Or I will be out in the street because I cannot afford to buy food, pay the electric, and rent on minimum wage. If I need to travel for work, I need gas for the car(on top of the insurance and registration which Florida loves to raise) and yes I do have an old used car-and no delusions of getting a new one. And yes, I do have all of my taxes taken out of my checks.
    • John Conner  •  10 mths ago
      Mr. Lenzner is out of his mind. Nobody, individuals, businesses, cities, counties, states, or a nation can borrow money to pay it's bills in perpituity - Nobody! A recent stat on these pages said that $2 out of every $10 in personal spending comes directly from the government. Pain is coming. Congress can cut decide which expenses and handouts to cut now, or within a few years China and their allies will decide for us. Either way this will not end well as too many Americans are wholly dependent on Washington D.C. handouts and don't know any other way of life. We started down this road with the 16th amendment (Income tax and the Fed), followed by FDR, LBJ, and alot of squishy politicians from both parties
    • YOU ELECTED THEM...  •  10 mths ago
      I have been in a "depression" for a very long time. I have watched millions of jobs leave our country, watched home values drop like a rock, watched retirement account values drop too. All of this at the hands of a corrupt government and both of these parties have done more than their part. But the worst thing is that my neighbors continue to vote for these parties eventhough they suffer as much as I do...
    • billf  •  10 mths ago
      It's not a one trick pony and you have to understand the CFR has its own agenda when they come out with this bull roar. Sure you have to cut the budget, but you also have to cut the throats of the 2B2Fail Banksters, get rid of the current private central bank, but back to a 'Classic Gold Standard', NOT the Phony Gold Standard the world was in that crashed and burned in 1931 dragging down trade like the crashing dollar threatens to do today.
      First off, there was no 'balanced budget' movement in 1931-1932, nor in 1937. That's a like, but Yahoo prints it like its the truth. Everything crashed because the equivilant of Quantitative Easing didn't work, the same as it doesn't today, because it was 1) directed at bailing out the ruling rich, and 2) because it tied up capital via a government planning and was not efficiently utilized.
      What the world and America needed in the 1930's was a Revolution. We got it, but it was FDR's 'New (s)Deal'. America all ready has that, so the Revolution we're getting this time is the real deal, but Revolutions are very dangerous, and if your going to have one, you'd better be prepared. Prepared with a plan to front run it before it occurs because its a process that has all ready started. Get ready for the New American Revolution my friends, because its on its way.
    • M5  •  10 mths ago
      According to the quarterly "flow of funds" reports, the only thing keeping the U.S. GDP growing is federal debt increases. Once this is reigned in, we will see a negative GDP number. That will be the official start of the Depression whether it is a "Great" one or just a mini--nobody knows. It doesn't have to be the end game. The U.S. has experienced numerous depressions. It's not the end of the world.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  10 mths ago
      So we are going to have a balanced budget?? Price controls played a greater part in the depression. No mention of that.

      jk

      jk
    • GBC  •  10 mths ago
      Forbes are Keynesians too !

      Forbes' usual rant is Reagan supply-side hooey - where you cut taxes on billionaires, who then create jobs for all. (For all living in Mexico, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc - thats the fine print.)

      Advocating for deficit spending to grease the wheels of the economy went out of fashion among millionaires decades ago. There has been an historic trade-off between (monetary/fiscal) policies that control inflation, and those that promote employment. Deficit spending tends to cause inflation, but also creates jobs.

      Millionaires prefer to control inflation - because inflation (and currency flux) makes it harder to manage an investment portfolio. The poor and middle class - to the extent that they understand what's in their own interest (a rarity) - prefer to maximize employment, and should be glad for deficit spending.

      Thus for Forbes to come out in a pro-labor, anti-millionaire position underscores just how wacky-coconuty-bonkers the GOP has become.

      Keynes is dead - long live Keynes.
    • Robert  •  10 mths ago
      Tea Partiers and Republicans are traitors working for their own power and interests. They will sink this economy like a stone and then blame it on Obama. Are you all blind?!
    • FedUp  •  10 mths ago
      Yep, that's what we want to do. Save Wall Street again. Let's just take more from Main street to save the morality-deprived bankers. Funny how they argue that to get out of debt, we should go into more debt.
    • RogueLoner  •  10 mths ago
      I create my OWN economy. Identify what I do well. Find people who need what I do. Create a win / win situation. Do a good job. I don't eat caviar and drive a Cadillac. Works for ME!
    • S'mon  •  10 mths ago
      Fiscal contraction in a recession is pro-cyclical. But the analyses I've seen indicate that increasing government spending has a smaller boost effect than does cutting taxes; roughly x2.5 vs x3 ratio on spending to GDP growth. There is a possible exception for infrastructure development (roads, dams) that itself encourages further economic development.
    • Sally  •  10 mths ago
      Where are all the big-mouthed Republicans that thought squandering a TRILLION DOLLARS in Iraq was such a darn good idea? Talk about hurting the country! Traitors...
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