If the GOP wants viable 2012 presidential hopefuls, they should look beyond some of their most recognizable names. Those like Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are carrying too much baggage to be elected -- whether it's their own baggage of being "too conservative" for most people or negative media coverage.
First-timer Tim Pawlenty and re-runner Mitt Romney might be better choices.
Pawlenty just finished two terms as Minnesota's governor (2002-2010). This past week, he announced the selection of a 2012 presidential exploratory committee. A "Pawlenty 2012" website has been created, stating the main platform of his campaign will be to "cut spending, limit government and grow the economy."
In a homepage video announcing the committee's formation, Pawlenty also recounts that under his leadership Minnesota's government grew smaller, jobs were created, economy re-stabilized and people enjoyed life without every facet being run by government.
A fundraising team has been chosen to focus on building support for Pawlenty in states that could be important to the 2012 race.
Pawlenty rose through Republican ranks since he was first elected to Minnesota's House of Representatives in 1992. He gained national attention when he vocally joined other governors against President Obama's health care bill. In a formal statement on the president's health care bill, Pawlenty says:
"Obamacare takes our health care system in the wrong direction, failing to reduce costs and improve quality. The law infringes on individuals' and states' rights by forcing individuals to purchase a good or service, which is why I joined a lawsuit calling the law unconstitutional. If courts do not do so first, as President, I would support the immediate repeal of Obamacare and replace it with market-based health care reforms."
Pawlenty stands as a valid contender at GOP12, "The Hill's" wish list for Republican presidential candidates.
Doug Gross, Mitt Romney's 2008 Iowa chairman, said Pawlenty is "sort of the tortoise in the race," and gives Pawlenty credit for not doing things to attract the media, but instead working hard toward doing well in election caucuses (Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2011).
Pawlenty's negative in Republican primaries: lack of name recognition among voters who don't research less familiar candidates.
Mitt Romney has plenty of name recognition and joins Pawlenty on the GOP12 list.
"Mitt Romney Central" states he will announce his exploratory committee in early April. At a Manhattan fundraiser, Romney set a goal to raise $50 million for his campaign. A recent Public Policy Poll in Michigan shows him leading the Republican pack against, but still far behind, President Obama.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney dropped out of the 2008 presidential race before Huckabee. Supporters like Americans for Mitt 2008 thought he should have stayed the course, but according to his concession speech (still at that site), Romney felt that McCain's stand on national security was so strong that McCain was the only one who could win against then-candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
That speech gained momentum afterward on conservative talk programs and websites. It addressed everything from the economy to child development, downfalls in American culture, attacks on biblical faith and the war on jihad. Had Romney made such a speech while running, he could have been a more formidable opponent for the Democrats.
At the time, Obama was quoted as calling Romney's campaign ineffective at political sites like DemocraticUnderground.com.
Although Romney has the stronger chance of winning the 2012 nomination than Pawlenty on name recognition alone, several factors may keep both men from winning the presidency.
Both oppose the abolition of DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act), while President Obama continues to gather support for his order to Attorney General Eric Holder to stop defending portions of DOMA.
They've also both supported pro-life measures. And contrary to popular belief, American Christians are more concerned about poverty and personal economics than issues like homosexuality and abortion. A January 2008 Barna poll on Americans' moral and social concerns had a section on how born-again Christians intended to vote in the presidential election that year.
Of the nation's 68 million people considering themselves born-again Christians, 79 percent were most concerned about finances and poverty. This was actually a percentage point higher than other Americans, while Christians concerned about abortion ranked at 67 percent and homosexuality 51 percent (within this, classified subgroups varied in percentage).
Barna's updated September 2010 poll on national concerns still ranked economy the most important. A downsizing on Christian values' importance may work in Romney's favor, because Mormons (Romney is one) have several different doctrines than other Christian denominations.
With these polls indicating that millions of people have placed the economy above their biblical or other conservative principles, Obama will win a second term if he can improve the economic situation by election time 2012.
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