Romney's Lack of Errors Keep Him Afloat

ANALYSIS | With Sarah Palin and Chris Christie (still) opting not to run for the 2012 GOP nomination, the field looks to be set leading up to the Iowa caucuses in January. Polling would indicate Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain as the front runners, with the Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachman, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and John Huntsman all failing to break the 10 percent support level.

Despite various levels of unease within the base over Romney really being a conservative, he seems to be the front runner at this point based on a lack of errors in the debates. He speaks well, looks poised, and never is at a loss for an answer. Greatly working in his favor are the poor debate performances by Perry, the seemingly former darling of the conservatives, who may have been replaced by Cain. If Cain can keep his momentum in the polls, a caucus win in Iowa may be in reach. Barring a miraculous recovery by Perry, Romney looks to be able to coast to the nomination by playing it safe and avoiding any unforced errors.

Assuming a potential Romney candidacy, who will take the second slot on the ticket? Based on the level of animosity between the presidential candidates thus far, I think it's unlikely that any of them would be named to the VP slot. Governors from potential swing states will be heavily looked at, including Indiana's Mitch Daniels, New Jersey's Christie, and Michigan's Rick Snyder, along with Louisiana's Bobby Jindal and South Carolina's Nikki Haley. From the Senate, Florida's Marco Rubio and Ohio's Rob Portman are popular choices.

I personally would lean toward Christie getting the nod. While he hasn't been in office long, he has executive experience, has made a substantial impact on New Jersey and isn't afraid to tell voters the truth. He's cut the budget, cut spending, and trimmed the work force. He's well spoken and will be able to easily communicate the values and stay on message for any campaign.

With the current approval levels for President Obama, hovering in the low 40s and even high 30s in some polls, any candidate who can stay on message and avoid mistakes should have no problem winning against an Obama/Biden ticket. Unemployment is at 9.1 percent and not expected to go down significantly; the economy is still struggling and uncertainty over taxes and health care will keep consumers from spending and, unfortunately, businesses from hiring.

Overall, it's going to be a fun race to watch, provided the GOP candidates don't do too much damage to each other before the general election. If the GOP candidates can refrain from attacking each other and keep their criticism on Obama, the race should be over by the time the GOP has an official candidate.