COMMENTARY | Ron Paul won the final Maine county caucus by beating Mitt Romney 163-80, the New York Times reported. Washington County had its caucus postponed from earlier this month because of a predicted snowstorm that in the end never amounted to much.
With this big win and getting more than two votes for every Romney vote in Washington County, Paul has gotten a boost in polling, according to Real Clear Politics, moving ahead of Newt Gingrich in Michigan. He also has gotten a boost in funding courtesy of a pre-Super Tuesday Moneybomb at $1.71 million (and counting), and his Endorse Liberty Super PAC landed a $1.7 million donation from billionaire Peter Thiel, according to Forbes.
Romney had won the statewide Maine vote in 2008 with more than 52 percent of the vote as he beat the eventual nominee John McCain by more than 30 percent. Paul contested the state much better in 2012 than McCain did in 2008. In a state near his home turf of Massachusetts, why has Romney lost so much ground?
The difference is that gradually Paul is capturing Romney's trait of inevitability in the race for the Republican nomination. Paul started this campaign being known for his consistency, a 20-plus year voting record of less spending and smaller government, and the best spending cut plan of any candidate. More and more it seems voters want someone they can trust, like Paul, but they cast their vote for the candidate who has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election. Luckily for Paul, his appeal in that focus grows even stronger.
Obama will approach the general election with nearly $1 billion of campaign financing, or so he promises, and his steadfast on-camera speaking capabilities. But Obama will also be facing the election with a record of broken promises from his pledge to stop nation building overseas, to his reappointment of George W Bush's Federal Reserve disciple Ben Bernanke -- the man Obama partly blamed for the poor economy when campaigning against Republicans in 2008.
Republican voters are beginning to realize that to beat Obama, one must fully grasp how Obama won in 2008. Obama had a loyal following of tireless supporters who would volunteer to do just about anything, donate as often as they were asked and get out the vote when the time came. Obama also received the lion's share of independent voters that year -- and managed to snag disgruntled voters from across the aisle as well.
Given that almost all Republicans will vote for their party's nominee, and almost all Democrats will vote for their party's nominee, both candidates in the general election will be battling over the remaining independent voters. Obama understood this game plan well in 2008, and Paul seems most apt to succeed in that regard in 2012.
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