How a Rubio vice presidential pick would upend Florida politics

Ever since Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race, one of the most buzzed-about topics among lobbyists and donors in Florida is what he’ll do next, particularly given that he’s young and will be term-limited out in 2026.

When it emerged that Donald Trump might consider Sen. Marco Rubio to be his running mate among more than a dozen others, many saw a potential opening for DeSantis, who would be charged with tapping Rubio’s replacement if he were to resign from his seat.

While Trump hasn’t indicated who he’ll pick as a running mate and DeSantis considers the Senate question “premature” and hasn’t narrowed down his options, people close to the governor say he would consider a small circle of trusted officials who’ve been most loyal to him — but he wouldn't put himself or his wife in the seat.

Among the possibilities would be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva and chief of staff James Uthmeier. At least half a dozen donors and political operatives said they were aware of some or all of the names that would be in consideration.

“These four people have worked well with the governor in the past,” said a person familiar with DeSantis’ thinking, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “Of course he likes them all, but he also admires their work ethic and their conservative principles. They are also bold leaders in their own way. He knows they would do what he considers to be the right thing on behalf of the residents of Florida.”

The information gives insight into how DeSantis envisions the more than two years he has left in office — chief among them being that he wouldn't be interested in filling Rubio’s seat with himself or Florida first lady Casey DeSantis. While he launched a bid for Rubio’s seat when he ran for president in 2016, DeSantis dropped out after Rubio lost the GOP nomination to Trump. The governor has since indicated that he wouldn’t find Congress appealing again after nearly three terms in the House.

A senior DeSantis official called it “premature and incorrect” for anyone to conclude that DeSantis might have settled on a list of Senate possibilities. “These discussions have not even begun to take place," said the person, granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

If Trump picks Rubio, it could raise legal questions, upend the state’s political landscape and potentially reshuffle the trajectory of upcoming marquee races such as the 2026 contest for governor.

For instance, appointing Moody — who is term-limited out of her current job in two years — could reshape the 2026 race for both governor and attorney general. Moody has been seen as a likely gubernatorial candidate but she could forgo that race if she’s a senator.

And several Republicans have been floated in the last several months as possible contenders for attorney general, including House Speaker Paul Renner. DeSantis could tap the frontrunner if he were to choose Renner or someone else to succeed Moody.

Earlier this year, there was speculation from inside Trump’s own team that they did not want to give DeSantis a chance to appoint someone to fill Rubio’s spot. But that thinking has “evolved,” said a person familiar with the Trump team deliberations who was granted anonymity to discuss the conversations.

But, the person added, "There's no desire for Ron DeSantis to appoint himself or a DeSantis acolyte.”

Much of this is speculative since Trump isn’t likely to name a running mate until closer to the Republican National Convention in July. Rubio brushed off questions about being Trump’s running mate, though he acknowledged it would be a “unique place to serve the country from,” including being able to influence policy at the executive level.

“President Trump's going to have his own process,” he said in a brief interview, adding that he hadn’t been approached by anyone on the Trump campaign about the possibility. “It’s flattering to be thought of that way, but I really don't spend a lot of time thinking about things that aren't before me. It might be, but I have no indication of that, other than from you guys.”

Asked about the four names reported by POLITICO, Rubio said Uthmeier was the only person he didn’t know as well as the others, though Uthmeier served as a law clerk for Rubio in the Senate. He called Nuñez a “close personal friend of ours for 20 years on a social basis,” but didn’t want to elaborate on the names, saying it would be “stirring up a pot that doesn’t need to be stirred.”

“We are getting way ahead of ourselves here — way, way ahead of ourselves,” he said.

In 2018, Rubio strongly urged Nuñez, a former legislator, to become DeSantis’ running mate. David Custin, a political consultant to Nuñez, said she and Rubio are allies and “good friends forever."

“I don’t think you’ll find anybody who is not interested in being considered to fill a U.S. Senate position,” he said. “The list of people who would not be interested can be counted on less than one hand.”

One person often discussed by political insiders and donors who can be counted out for the Senate is Ivanka Trump. The former first daughter was spotted this month in Miami’s South Beach talking warmly and laughing with Casey DeSantis at an event for the Italian restaurant Carbone at the W Hotel following the Miami Grand Prix, according to two people present, granted anonymity to talk about an exclusive event.

But the former first daughter and White House adviser’s team quickly shot down the idea that she’d be open to joining the Senate, pointing to a recent statement saying, “As they’ve both repeatedly stated, Ivanka and Jared continue to focus on their family and lives in the private sector and do not intend to go back to politics.”

Many in Florida political circles conclude a Rubio nomination would create too many potential legal hurdles and wouldn’t give Trump enough of an Electoral College advantage, given that he’s already ahead in Florida by roughly 9 points and could instead pick a running mate from a battleground state, such as GOP Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, who is also in the vice presidential mix.

“Speculation about what could happen in Florida is just that, speculation, because if a person tells you they know who or when President Trump is choosing his VP they’re lying unless the person is named Donald J. Trump,” said Brian Hughes, senior adviser for the Trump campaign.

The U.S. Constitution doesn’t bar the president and vice president from being from the same state but creates a potential scenario where the 30 electoral college votes from Florida could be in jeopardy unless Rubio or Trump change residences. The expectation is that Rubio, rather than Trump, would be the one to move.

Under Florida law, Rubio wouldn’t need to resign from the Senate to appear on the Florida ballot in November. State law also makes it clear that if there is a vacancy in the U.S. Senate, then it will be filled at the next general election.

If Rubio were to put in his resignation notice far enough in advance of this year’s election, it could theoretically open up his seat this year.

“I think all options are on the table,” said the source familiar with the Trump team deliberations. “I don’t think the vice presidential decision has been made.”

Kimberly Leonard reported from Miami, Gary Fineout reported from Tallahassee and Mia McCarthy reported from Washington. 

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