Early results from KY, OR Dem primary polls

By The Associated Press Tue May 20, 7:22 PM ET

Preliminary results from an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in Kentucky's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday and a phone poll during the past week in Oregon's vote-by-mail primary:

KEYS TO CLINTON WIN IN KENTUCKY

The demographic makeup of Kentucky's Democratic primary electorate was fairly similar to West Virginia's — overwhelmingly white, with substantial numbers of lesser-educated, lower-income voters — and that helped Hillary Rodham Clinton to a comparably lopsided victory over Barack Obama.

Clinton won two-thirds of women and nearly as many men; seven in 10 whites, who made up nearly 90 percent of Kentucky's electorate; and roughly 60 percent or more of all voters over age 30. Clinton also prevailed among all income and education categories, with particularly large margins among those at the lower end of both scales.

Obama ran nearly even with Clinton among voters under age 30 and may have edged her out among self-described independents, who were about one in 10 voters in the Kentucky Democratic primary. He won a bare majority among those who most valued change as a candidate attribute, but about a quarter cited experience and Clinton won nine in 10 of them.

One of the few other groups where Obama was competitive was among those who thought Clinton's proposal to suspend the federal gasoline tax this summer was a bad idea.

Kentucky has one of the least liberal electorates out of 33 competitive Democratic primaries in which exit polls were conducted this year — only about a third of voters called themselves liberal — and that, too, worked in Clinton's favor. She ran strongest among conservatives and moderates; Obama tends to do better among liberals.

IDEOLOGICAL EXTREMES

In contrast to Kentucky, Oregon was among the most liberal Democratic electorates to date, with close to six in 10 voters in its vote-by-mail primary calling themselves liberal.

ISSUE DIFFERENCES

Kentucky continued a recent trend in Democratic primaries with voters overwhelmingly picking the economy when given three choices for the most important issue facing the country. Oregon defied that trend. About two-thirds of Democratic voters in Kentucky said the economy was the top issue, about 20 percent picked the Iraq war and half as many said health care. In Oregon, fewer than half picked the economy, three in 10 said Iraq and two in 10 said health care.

Voters in Kentucky were a bit more likely than in Oregon to say the economic slowdown has affected them and their families a great deal. Kentucky Democrats also were more likely than their Oregon counterparts to say it's a good idea to suspend the federal gas tax this summer — an idea Clinton has promoted and Obama has criticized.

KEEPING HOPE ALIVE ... OR NOT

As Obama has built a daunting lead among convention delegates, his own supporters in Kentucky and Oregon were nearly unanimous in thinking he will secure the Democratic nomination. Many Clinton voters maintained hope for their candidate but substantial numbers acknowledged Obama as the likely nominee — half of Clinton voters in Oregon and a third in Kentucky said Obama will win the nomination.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING

All balloting was by mail in Oregon's primary and the phone poll asked when people voted or planned to. The survey found Clinton ran stronger among those who voted earlier while Obama ran better among those who mailed or delivered their ballots closer to election day.

In Kentucky, three in four voters said they made up their minds more than a month ago.

JOHN EDWARDS

Nearly two in 10 Kentucky Democratic voters said John Edwards' endorsement of Obama was a very important factor in their vote and nearly three in 10 said it was somewhat important. The question wasn't asked in Oregon, where the phone poll began before Edwards' announcement.

DEMOGRAPHIC POTPOURRI

As usual for this Democratic primary season, Clinton tended to run better in both states among older voters, those with lower incomes and less education, and those in rural areas, while Obama's strengths included the young, urban, wealthier and better-educated voters.

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Results from a partial exit poll sample conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International among 951 Democratic primary voters in 30 precincts across Kentucky and telephone polling May 12-18 among 1,201 people who said they definitely had voted or definitely would vote in Oregon's vote-by-mail Democratic primary.