Republicans Lead Democrats in Gallup Poll on U.S. Congress

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time this year, more voters say they would support a Republican candidate for Congress next year instead of a Democrat, according to a Gallup poll.

The survey found that 48 percent of those polled said they would vote for a hypothetical Republican candidate and 44 percent for a Democrat. The poll didn’t ask whether voters would vote for a specific candidate. Instead, they were asked whether they would support the Democratic or Republican candidate in their congressional district if the election were held now.

The results predict a “likely strong Republican showing” in the November 2010 congressional elections, Gallup said. The Princeton, New Jersey-based polling organization said voter turnout will be crucial in determining who will win, particularly in highly contested elections.

If turnout patterns continue, the survey suggests that Democrats have “slim” prospects for a good showing in the 2010 mid-term election, Gallup said.

Independent voters tipped the scales in favor of the Republicans. The poll found that Republicans led Democrats among independents 52 percent to 30 percent, according to the telephone survey of 894 registered voters conducted Nov. 5-8.

The poll found that 91 percent of registered Democrats and 93 percent of Republicans said they would support their party’s candidate.

In July, when Gallup first began polling for next year’s congressional elections, the Democratic candidate led the Republican 50 percent to 44 percent. That lead slipped to 46 percent to 44 percent in a Gallup survey conducted in October.

The Republican candidate led the Democrat among independents by 1 percentage point in July, 43 percent to 42 percent. That margin widened to 9 percentage points in the October survey.

The survey had an error margin of 4 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: James Rowley in Washington at jarowley@bloomberg.net