All Eyes on Illinois' Tossup Race to Fill Hastert Seat

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff Fri Mar 7, 1:00 AM ET

In what some analysts describe as a proxy for the November election, voters in Illinois' 14th District head to the polls Saturday for a momentous special election to fill the vacant seat of former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, who resigned last November. Democratic scientist Bill Foster and Republican dairy executive Jim Oberweis are competing.

Hastert served the district, which takes in suburbs and rural territory west of Chicago and extends nearly to the Mississippi River, for more than 20 years and was the longest-serving Republican House Speaker.

Democrats see an upset victory by Foster as the ultimate repudiation of the Republican Party and of President Bush, who handily carried the 14th District in the 2004 election -- by a margin of 55 percent to 44 percent for Democratic Sen. John Kerry. But Bush was more popular then than he is now, and Republicans acknowledge a competitive race between Foster, a first-time candidate, and Oberweis, who lost Republican primaries for senator in 2002 and 2004 and for governor in 2006.

In fact, the race seems close enough that CQ Politics is applying a rating of "No Clear Favorite" to the Illinois 14 contest -- a change from the Leans Republican rating that previously applied to the race. Should Foster win -- and private and public polls suggest that is a plausible scenario -- it would mark the first time in nearly four years that a special election caused a shift in partisan control of a congressional district.

Republican strategists acknowledge that the race is very close and that they're aware of the implications of a Democratic victory in the former Speaker's district.

"We understand the symbolic importance of the race," Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), told reporters Monday at a breakfast meeting that was organized by the Christian Science Monitor. "It will be spun out of all proportions if we were to lose it. It will be 'my God, it's the end of the Republican Party, the Speaker's seat is gone.' "

Cole obviously does not agree with that doomsday assessment. He attributed the race's competitiveness in part to the popularity of Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, who's backing Foster as he pursues his front-running campaign for the Democratic nomination. "We're in the middle of Obama-mania," Cole said, adding that Foster has been competitive also because he is well-funded.

With most of the voting public unhappy with Congress, the Bush administration and the direction of the nation, each candidate is endeavoring to come across to voters as an agent of change.

Foster has emphasized his background as a scientist who started a successful business that makes theater lighting equipment.

"As a scientist and a businessman, Bill brings a unique perspective to Washington," said Foster spokesman Thomas C. Bowen.

In a joint interview that the editorial board of the Chicago Tribune conducted of both candidates, Foster said this election is about "whether you support a continuation of George Bush's policies or whether you believe things should be changed." Foster supports a timeline to immediately begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.

Foster's campaign is airing a television ad that features Obama, who has emphasized a theme of "change" in his White House bid. In the Web site.

Obama's involvement is drawing comparisons to a possible November matchup between Obama and Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee who has helped Oberweis raise money.

The NRCC has aired a television ad that says that "people are demanding change, but Bill Foster is offering the same old thing." It shows a clip of Foster saying that "there's nothing in life that you can't improve by throwing money at it." Oberweis also has criticized Foster for the statement, which Foster says was taken out of context from a much longer answer.

Oberweis has emphasized cutting taxes and curbing federal spending, among other issues. He has painted Foster as an "extreme" supporter of higher taxes because Foster doesn't support a permanent extension of all tax reductions that the Bush administration implemented in 2001 and 2003.

"Liberal Democrat Bill Foster thinks higher taxes are the answer," Oberweis says in a television ad in which he also says that raising taxes "kills jobs. We need to slash wasteful spending and cut taxes to create jobs."

Foster says that he supports tax relief for middle-income taxpayers -- such as relief to pay for tuition and child care expenses -- but that he would restore the higher tax rates that applied to the top 2 percent of taxpayers in the 1990s, when he said the economy was "spectacular" and producing more jobs than it is today.

Oberweis also has said he's better than Foster on the issues of curbing illegal immigration and protecting Social Security. Foster's campaign says that Oberweis' support of a system of personal accounts under Social Security is tantamount to "privatization."

Both Foster and Oberweis are wealthy and are largely funding their campaigns. The political parties and some labor unions also are spending millions more.

According to periodic filings with the Federal Election Commission, the NRCC has spent at least $1.23 million in "independent expenditures" -- such as television ads, phone calls and mail pieces -- that cannot be made in concert with the Oberweis campaign. Most of these outlays went for television commercials, which are expensive to run in the pricey Chicago media market.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is flush with cash, has spent just over $1 million in independent expenditures on the contest that haven't been made in coordination with Foster's campaign.

"We're putting in money; they're putting in money," NRCC chief Cole said. "Obviously you wouldn't see all that activity if it wasn't competitive."

Foster this week received the backing of the conservative-leaning editorial page of the Chicago Tribune, though its treatment was more censorious of Oberweis than adulatory of Foster. The Tribune editorial said that Oberweis' campaign style over four federal campaigns has "consistently been nasty, smug, condescending . . . and dishonest."

Oberweis was backed by the more liberal-leaning editorial page of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Tribune's competitor. The paper's editorial staff met at length with both candidates and said Oberweis was "forceful and informed" and Foster "failed to do his homework" and was "unable to discuss important issues in anything but superficial terms."

Regardless of what happens on Saturday, voters in Illinois' 14th will be seeing a lot more of Foster and Oberweis in the months ahead. Both men actually won a pair of primary elections on Feb. 5 -- one to determine the nominees to fill Hastert's unexpired term and one to determine the candidates for a full two-year term -- so they'll again be opponents in the November general election.

Please visit CQ Politics on Saturday night for analysis of the returns in Illinois' 14th District.