National Party Kibitzing Grows in Mississippi Special House Race

By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff Fri May 2, 12:55 PM ET

The stakes are high in the hotly contested House special election that will be held May 13 in Mississippi's vacant 1st District -- and both parties' national House campaign units have ratcheted up their already expensive independent advertising campaigns backing the contenders: Democrat Travis Childers, the Prentiss County chancery clerk, and Republican Greg Davis, mayor of Southaven.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which has built a hefty cash reserve since the party took control of the House following the 2006 elections, had poured more than $1 million into the race as of Thursday, according to independent expenditure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

That has put an additional financial burden on the GOP's parallel organization, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which has a fraction of the cash on hand piled up by the DCCC but has had to spend at least $600,000 in an attempt to hold ground in this district. The GOP badly wants to avoid another reversal in a special election, after the Democrats' March 8 takeover victory for Illinois' 14th District seat that had been held by former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert prior to his resignation last November.

CQ Politics rates the race No Clear Favorite.

The contest is actually one of two special elections, being held within 10 days of each other, in which the Democrats are aggressively pursuing takeover bids in Southern districts that have long been Republican strongholds. The Mississippi 1 race to succeed seven-term Republican Rep. Roger Wicker -- who was appointed in December to a vacant U.S. Senate seat -- will follow Saturday's highly competitive election in Louisiana's 6th District to replace 11-term Republican Richard H. Baker, who resigned in February to take over as head of a hedge fund lobbying group.

The Democrats were unlikely to put up a serious challenge for the northern Mississippi seat as long as it continued to be held by Wicker, who ran up 66 percent in 2006, a tough year for Republicans nationally, in a district that gave 62 percent to President Bush in 2004. But Wicker's Senate appointment following the resignation of Republican Trent Lott, and the Democrats' continued momentum in congressional politics since the 2006 elections, prompted a stronger-than-expected takeover effort in the special election.

That effort accelerated after Childers, a nursing home owner who casts himself as a conservative Democrat, finished first in the April 22 first-round vote with 49 percent, falling just short of the majority needed to win the seat outright. Childers had earlier proven himself a strong candidate by winning the April 1 Democratic primary runoff to claim the nomination for the regularly scheduled 1st District general election this November.

Davis, meanwhile, finished second on April 22 with 46 percent and kept Childers from breaking the majority threshold only by building an overwhelming majority in his home base of DeSoto County in metropolitan Memphis. Davis had survived a bruising campaign to win the Republican nomination for the November general election, which in turned depleted a big personal fundraising advantage over Childers. Davis raised $860,000 total through April 23 while Childers raised a total of $484,000, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. But the difference between the candidates' remaining cash reserves as of that date were much smaller, with Davis reporting $72,000 on hand to $61,000 for Childers.

The effort by Davis and his Republican backers to push past Childers in the runoff are based on their attempts to "nationalize" the race. They are seeking to erode Childers' claims of conservative credentials by associating him with more liberal national Democratic Party leaders -- a tack being echoed in the Louisiana House special election contest between state Rep. Don Cazayoux, who also is running as a conservative-leaning Democrat, and Republican former state Rep. Woody Jenkins.

Davis, who is running on his own conservative agenda and his record as mayor, launched an ad this week that sought to characterize Childers as a liberal by connecting him to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential contender. The ad portrayed Childers as remaining silent during the controversy over inflammatory remarks made by Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the longtime pastor of the Chicago church attended by Obama, and also when Obama suggested prior to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary that working-class voters who are "bitter" over economic conditions "cling" to religion and guns.

Davis implied that Obama had endorsed Childers' campaign, and said that compelled Childers to comment on these controversies. Republicans note that Obama's campaign Web site posted a notice asking supporters to make calls to boost support for Childers.

But Childers denied Obama had formally endorsed his campaign, and noted in a response ad that Obama is an individual "I don't know and have never met."

Childers also contended in a separate statement that Davis was running the ad to "distract" voters from his own campaign challenges. "This race is not about a senator from Illinois or a pastor from Chicago," Childers said in a statement. "It's about the people of Mississippi. It's about right and wrong. And the way Greg Davis is running his campaign is wrong."

Analysts have said it is possible that a kind word from Obama -- who is seeking to become the nation's first African-American president -- could help Childers at the polls May 13 by increasing turnout among blacks who make up more than a quarter of district voters and typically vote overwhelmingly Democratic. But Childers, who is casting himself as a "pro-life" and "pro-gun" conservative, has to walk a fine line in a district that overall leans strongly to the right, as Republicans are basing their campaign against him on an allusion that he will side with liberal Democrats should he go to Washington.

The May 13 runoff is the fourth 1st District election this year. The candidates weathered a March 11 primary and the April 1 primary runoff in which Childers and Davis each won their party's nomination to compete in the November general election for a full term in the upcoming 111th Congress. The candidates met again on April 22 to compete in the special election to fill the remainder of Wicker's unexpired term, which ends in January, and will complete the circuit with the May 13 special election runoff.

The May 13 winner will be sworn into Congress shortly after his win and will be able to boast of his experience in office when the general election campaign rolls around this fall.