McCain's New Hampshire Pull Bodes Well for Sununu

By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff Mon May 5, 3:39 PM ET

New polling in New Hampshire shows John McCain leading over either of his Democratic rivals, which means that vulnerable Republican Sen. John E. Sununu may be better positioned to compete for a second term in office.

A University of New Hampshire Granite State poll of likely voters shows McCain leading Hillary Rodham Clinton in a hypothetical match up, 47 to 44 percent. McCain held a larger lead against Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, 49 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was +/- 4.4 percent.

McCain, who earned a reputation as a maverick in the Senate, receives wide support in New Hampshire where a majority of voters are registered "unaffiliated" and social conservatives are a smaller minority of Republicans. Voters chose McCain over George W. Bush in the 2000 New Hampshire primary.

McCain is likely to draw many supporters to the polls in New Hampshire, which could, in turn, boost turnout for Sununu.

"I think having McCain at the top of the ticket helps [Sununu]," said Dante Scala, associate professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire. But Scala said that like all Republicans in the state, Sununu began this year with an uphill fight on his hands.

The incumbent faces a competitive general election race against Democratic popular former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, whom Sununu narrowly bested in 2002.

"That was pretty much the high point in the decade for Republicans in New Hampshire," Scala said. "It's arguably all been down hill since then." Republican woes in New Hampshire stem from state political scandals, but are also related to a growing national Democratic trend, anti-Republican sentiment, dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and President Bush.

Democrats made huge strides in 2006, picking up majorities in both the state House and state Senate, ousting both Republican congressmen in favor of Democratic challengers and re-electing Democratic Gov. John Lynch by a large margin.

The state climate, combined with Shaheen's high statewide profile, have made 2008 a difficult year for Sununu. CQ Politics rates the race No Clear Favorite.

Polls have consistently shown Sununu way behind in potential match ups with Shaheen. But in the poll released today, [@url@Granite State Poll http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_spring_cong50508.pdf,@] Sununu narrowed the gap somewhat. Shaheen received 52 percent of the vote to Sununu's 40 percent. That 12 percent difference is an improvement from a 17 percent gap in February. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.

In addition, Sununu's favorability rating is 48 percent - his highest since April 2007. But Shaheen's is still significantly better, at 56 percent, just a slight dip from her earlier consistent 60 percent rating.

Scala expects the Senate race won't heat up until after Labor Day, when he believes Sununu will kick his campaign into high gear. Neither candidate faces a competitive Sept. 9 primary race and although they've been campaigning and fundraising, neither has run radio or television advertising.

Shaheen has been working to drum up support with what spokeswoman Kate Bedingfield described as "an aggressive schedule."

Shaheen launched a "Middle Class Matters" tour to visit and speak with voters throughout the state, and has given public policy speeches such as her April 28 address on the military and the war in Iraq in which she offered her support for a phased withdrawal of troops from Iraq and expressed a need to rebuild international alliances, among other proposals.

The state and national Democratic parties have been attacking Sununu on a number of fronts, including voting in support of the war in 2002 and his support for President Bush, who remains unpopular in the state.

Sununu, 43, is the youngest member of the Senate. His name is familiar to voters not only because of his public service, but through his father, former Gov. John H. Sununu who was chief of staff to George H.W. Bush. Sununu has been making fewer public campaign rounds than Shaheen, but his team notes that they're right on schedule.

"The campaign has a timeline and strategy in place and we are following that according to plan" said Teer, who noted that the Senator has a job in Congress.

Teer said the campaign will continue to "work aggressively" to raise necessary funding, and noted the more than 2-1 advantage Sununu currently holds over Shaheen in money on hand.

Sununu has $4.3 million at his disposal as of March 31, according to his cash-on-hand reported in his most recent filing with the Federal Election Commission. Shaheen reported $1.8 million on hand. Shaheen's team notes that the candidate only begun raising money last fall and has outraised Sununu over the last two quarterly periods.