Without GOP Challenger, Tsongas Seems Safe

By Jessica Benton Cooney, CQ Staff Thu May 8, 1:38 AM ET

Incumbent Massachusetts Rep. Niki Tsongas will likely cruise into the general election with no significant challengers to the 5th District seat she won in an October special election.

Tuesday was the deadline for candidates to turn in the needed 2,000 signatures to the local townships to be considered for the ballot. Barney Keller, communications director of the Republican Party of Massachusetts, said "as far as I know, no [Republican] has expressed interest ... Everyone recognizes the difficulties of running in Massachusetts especially in a presidential year."

Signatures are not due to the Secretary of State's office until June 3, but it is unlikely that any petitions will emerge then.

Independent Kurt Hayes, who ran last year in the special election, announced a bid as a Republican for this November, but dropped out of the race and now is running for the state legislature.

Because of the lack of GOP interest, CQ Politics is changing the race rating to Safe Democrat.

Tsongas is the widow of the late Paul E. Tsongas, who represented the 5th district from 1975 to 1979. He held a Senate seat from 1979 to 1985, before running unsuccessfully for the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination. Though he died of cancer in 1997, Niki Tsongas was able to build her 2007 October victory off her ties to influential Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy.

Tsongas chief of staff Katie Elbert says the campaign isn't taking anything for granted, adding that Tsongas "has strong financial backing." As of March 31, she had raised $2.9 million for this election cycle.

The seat became open last year when former Rep. Martin T. Meehan left, during his eighth term, to become the chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. The district, while Democratic, is considered to be more conservative than others in the state as it includes affluent Boston exurbs and the old blue-collar industrial cities of Lowell and Lawrence. Tsongas became the first woman to represent Massachusetts since Republican Margaret Heckler lost in 1982.

"(Tsongas) has gained incumbent capital," said Frank Talty, political science professor at University of Massachusetts at Lowell. "She's had 10 months of incumbent‑like coverage in the press," he added and noted that with all the attention being paid to the Democratic presidential race, "it's not a good time for a challenger to run."

Tsongas' former opponent, Republican Jim Ogonoswki, decided to launch a challenge against four-term incumbent Sen. John Kerry rather than run again against Tsongas, though he finished unexpectedly close to her in October ‑ within six percent.

Ogonoswki, a former Navy pilot, was best known during his first campaign as the brother of the late John Ogonoswki, the American Airlines pilot whose Flight 11 out of Boston on Sept. 11, 2001 was hijacked and flown into the north tower of the World Trade Center.

He will have an even tougher fight for the Senate than he did against Tsongas. A recent Rasmussen survey in Massachusetts found Kerry with a solid lead over Ogonowski, 53 to 31 percent. And, as of March 31, Ogonowski had less than $200,000 cash on hand while Kerry had more than $9 million.

Stating that he is "not at all" intimidated by Kerry's last quarter fundraising, Ogonowski said, "we clearly exceeded expectations," in cash-on-hand, adding that with seven months to go before the election, the survey numbers are still early and that his campaign is "going fantastic" is "building off the foundation from last year."

When asked why he opted to not challenge Tsongas again in the fifth district, Ogonowski said, "I considered that... but the opportunity to represent all of the people of Massachusetts is something I want and people are telling me they want."

Ogonoswki is also facing a Republican challenger, Jeff Beatty in the September 16 primary.