Analysis: Obama's Next Test Is Choosing No. 2

By Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff Wed Jun 4, 11:39 PM ET

Now that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has made clear that she is interested in the second spot on the Democratic ticket, and has encouraged allies to make that case for her, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has to make one critical judgment call that will almost certainly shape his choice.

Obama must decide whether he believes he is more likely to win the presidency with Clinton on the ticket. Like many of the toughest calls a president makes on the basis of the best available information, he cannot know for sure that the choice he makes will be the right one.

Many of his strongest supporters have long advised against Obama picking Clinton as a running mate for a variety of reasons, ranging from national Clinton fatigue, to Republican animosity for her, to Michelle Obama's rumored disdain of the former first lady, to a belief that picking Clinton would undermine Obama's mantras of change and "turning the page."

Illinois Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr., one of Obama's closest political allies, told CQ Politics a few weeks back that Clinton was simply one of a number of Democratic party leaders who should be considered for a spot under Obama's name on the ballot.

Then there's the residual bitterness from a primary campaign that polarized Democratic voters and had Obamans and Clintonites at each other's throats -- creating a rift that may have deepened Tuesday night when Clinton declined to concede the nomination to Obama.

But none of that is likely to matter if Obama concludes that his chances are better with her on the ticket. It would be self-defeating to let personal considerations impede his path to the presidency, particularly given the institutional weakness of the vice presidency.

However, if he thinks she is a drag on his prospects, there is no reason to pick her. The same would be true if he believes he will win no matter who runs with him or if he believes his ticket mate will have absolutely no bearing on the outcome.

Clinton supporters are understandably clamoring for her inclusion on the ticket. They see it is a just reward for a candidate who won about half of the votes in the Democratic Party, secured roughly 48 percent of the pledged delegates and raised vast sums of cash.

"He would be wise to ask her," a Clinton-aligned superdelegate said earlier this week.

The political class of the Democratic Party, including Clinton, will surely work to elect Obama.

But many rank-and-file Clinton voters are threatening to bolt the party in November, and some undoubtedly will vote for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain if Clinton's name does not appear somewhere on the ballot.

Most political observers in both parties, whether elected officials or run-of-the-mill voters, seem to think Obama's decision is a no-brainer: They just don't agree on whether that means Clinton should be on or off the ticket.

It would make Obama's task easier if there was one candidate who had appeal that crossed the lines of all the segments of the party that backed Clinton and could help keep them on board.

Maybe Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who supported Clinton and is an ordained minister who favors gun rights and limited abortion rights, would appeal to culturally conservative voters in the Appalachian region. That, too, would be the appeal of vanquished nomination rival John Edwards of North Carolina.

It is possible that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, whose mother hailed from Mexico, could work to ensure that Latino Democrats do not defect to McCain, the GOP author of an immigration overhaul that is generous to immigrants, more attractive than Obama.

The selection of a female governor, such as Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas or Janet Napolitano of Arizona, might salve the sting felt by women who thought the Obama camp and the media treated the first viable female presidential candidate ungraciously.

Caroline Kennedy, daughter of President John F. Kennedy and niece of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., was just named to Obama's three-member vice presidential search committee.

It's not likely that he would choose her but if he did -- as President Bush did with Richard Cheney, the head of his V.P. selection panel -- the daughter of Camelot would have natural appeal to a broad cross-section of Democrats, including women and Latinos, who revere her father and her uncles. By virtue of her husband's faith, she might help Obama shore up support in the Jewish community. There is no doubt that there will be a sentimental push for her in some Democratic circles.

However, she has very intentionally stayed out of government service and the public eye for most of her life, and it would be a surprise to veteran political observers if Obama selected someone with even less experience than himself as a running mate.

Ultimately, there are few, if any, candidates who appeal to all corners of Clinton's diverse constituency. Clinton would be the clear choice for Obama if general election victory were solely predicated on winning Democratic votes. And if he determines that his best hopes lie in motivating Democratic voters rather than persuading independent and Republican voters to cross into the Democratic column, he would be more likely to choose her.

But many Obama supporters believe that any voters she would bring to the ticket would be more than offset by Republicans and independents showing up to the polls to vote against her.

Obama will feel pressure, even from some of his own supporters, to bridge the party divide by reaching out to Clinton. If he does not, critics will say his unwillingness to unify his party undermines his claim that he can unify the country.

No matter how much pressure Obama gets, it is for him to judge whether Clinton's name appears on the ballot. Even before voters go to the polls in November, his decision will provide a lot of insight into his campaign strategy and perhaps his capacity for conciliation.