Challenges to Sen. Landrieu, Rep. Jefferson Top Louisiana Election Lineup

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff Fri Jul 11, 6:47 PM ET

Democrats will augment their slender U.S. Senate majority in an election year in which CQ Politics rates nine seats held by Republicans among the 10 most vulnerable to takeover by the challenging party. But that raises the stakes in the one exception: conservative-leaning Louisiana, where two-term Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu is facing a competitive challenge.

CQ Politics currently applies a rating of Leans Democratic to the long-anticipated race between Landrieu and state Treasurer John Kennedy, a longtime Democrat who switched to the Republican Party as he launched his Senate bid. Landrieu is unopposed and Kennedy will face one minor opponent for the Sept. 6 primary, according to a list of candidate filings posted by the Louisiana Secretary of State's office Friday afternoon at the close of the state's three-day candidate qualifying period.

The Senate race will compete for attention over the next few weeks with what will be a high-profile contest in the New Orleans-based 2nd Congressional District, where seven Democratic candidates filed to challenge nine-term Rep. William J. Jefferson in the primary. Jefferson is seeking re-election despite his indictment and pending trial on federal charges of accepting bribes.

The Senate race will, however, be the marquee congressional race this fall, when there also will be competitive House races in the 4th District, left open by retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery; the 6th District, where Democrat Don Cazayoux faces a tough fight to hold the formerly Republican seat he just captured in a May 3 special election; and probably the 7th District, where Democrats are waging a longshot battle to unseat Republican Rep. Charles Boustany Jr.

Landrieu has the early edge in the Senate contest, in part because she has good approval ratings in polls and is running in what appears a strong Democratic year nationally. She is emphasizing the benefits of her Senate seniority to a state, battered by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, that has seen the retirements of several veteran members of Congress in recent years.

"In the end, this election is about delivering for Louisiana, and the people of this state know that she has not only fought but won her fights and delivered for the state," said Landrieu campaign manager Jay Howser, noting as one example the senator's work to secure federal funding for Louisiana.

Matt Miller, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the political arm of the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate, said that Landrieu has support from independent and moderate voters and also is doing well in fundraising and early polling.

"By every standard you can measure, she looks extremely strong right now," Miller said.

Kennedy is no stranger to Senate politics, though he made his previous attempt in 2004 as a Democrat. That bid did not go well, as Kennedy finished third with 15 percent behind two House incumbents: Republican David Vitter, who took 51 percent to win the seat outright in what technically was an all-party primary, and Democrat Chris John, who took 29 percent. This year's elections are the first under a change in Louisiana election law that implemented a system used in most states, with the parties holding separate primaries to nominate candidates for general elections held on the national Election Day.

Kennedy, in his campaign against Landrieu, has been emphasizing issues such as increased transparency in how the government spends taxpayers' money. Kennedy campaign communications director Leonardo Alcivar described this as "a change year" and "a change election," in which Kennedy's self-portrayal as a Washington outsider will trump Landrieu's experience in Congress.

"This is probably not the year that voters want to hear about clout and seniority in Washington, because they don't feel that Washington is meeting the needs of people," said Alcivar, who spoke as Kennedy was embarking on a bus tour of the state.

Though the National Republican Senatorial Committee understandably panned Kennedy's 2004 Democratic campaign for the Senate, it is backing his bid as a Republican to topple Landrieu. Kennedy is heavily favored to win the GOP primary against J. Jacques Boudreaux, about whom information was not readily available.

In the House races, the scandal clouding Jefferson's future will undoubtedly draw national attention to his primary contest.

The seven Democrats challenging Jefferson are James Carter, a New Orleans city councilman; Troy Carter, a former state representative and former New Orleans city councilman who ran against Jefferson in 2006, taking 12 percent to finish fifth overall (and fourth among Democrats) in that year's open-ballot primary; Jimmy Fahrenholtz, a member of the New Orleans school board; Byron L. Lee, a councilman in Jefferson Parish (county); Helena Moreno, a former television journalist; state Rep. Cedric Richmond; and Kenya J.H. Smith, a former aide to New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.

The seriousness of the charges facing Jefferson -- related to his business dealings with companies seeking contracts in Africa -- likely would have brought resignation or defeat to most any other member of Congress. But Jefferson, one of the senior African-American members of Congress, proved resilient in 2006, winning re-election in the black-majority 2nd District while he was under federal investigation but before he was formally indicted. After taking 30 percent of the vote in the crowded first-round vote that November, he easily defeated Democratic state Rep. Karen Carter, 57 percent to 43 percent, in the December runoff election.

The lone Republican candidate in the 2nd, which includes the bulk of New Orleans, is Anh "Joseph" Cao, a political unknown. This is a reflection of the daunting partisan odds in the Democratic Party stronghold, where presidential challenger John Kerry received 75 percent of the vote in 2004.

Among the most competitive general election contests, the best opportunity for Democrats to gain a seat is in the 4th District, with includes Shreveport in the northwestern part of the state. McCrery, who holds a prestigious position as ranking Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, is nonetheless leaving open the seat he has held for more than 20 years.

The candidate preferred by Democratic officials is Willie Banks; Artis "Doc" Cash, a losing Democratic candidate for the seat in 2006; and John Milkovich, who lost overwhelmingly to McCrery as the sole Democratic candidate in 2002.

Republicans plan to put up a strong defense of the seat behind the winner of a three-candidate primary featuring Jeff Thompson, a lawyer who is backed by McCrery and some House Republican leaders; John Fleming, a physician; and Chris Gorman, a trucking company executive.

CQ Politics currently rates the race as Leans Republican because of the district's conservative lean. But this race surely will become a tossup if Carmouche wins the primary, as is widely expected, and especially if the Republicans need a runoff election on Oct. 4 to choose a nominee barely four weeks before the November election.

Two independent candidates are in the race. They are Chester T. Kelley, a restaurateur who took 12 percent of the vote in the 2006 all-party primary on a platform of opposing illegal immigration, and Gerard J. Bowen Jr.

The Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to reclaim the Baton Rouge-based 6th District, newly held by Democrat Cazayoux, which favored Bush with 59 percent in 2004. Cazayoux won in May to succeed 11-term Republican Richard H. Baker, a long-dominant figure in the district who resigned in February to head the trade association representing hedge funds.

Cazayoux will now be running as an incumbent in what is shaping up to be a good Democratic year, so he might be expected to be in even better political shape than he was in May when he defeated Republican former state Rep. Woody Jenkins by 49 percent to 46 percent. But Cazayoux has drawn a serious Republican opponent in state Sen. Bill Cassidy, who is unopposed in the GOP primary. Complicating Cazayoux' prospects even further is the independent candidacy of state Rep. Michael Jackson, an African-American who lost to Cazayoux in the race for the Democratic nomination in the special election. Blacks, an overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning constituency, make up a third of the district's population.

CQ Politics currently rates the 6th District race as No Clear Favorite.

A competitive race may yet develop in the southwestern 7th District, where state Sen. Donald Cravins Jr. is challenging Republican incumbent Boustany Jr. Cravins entered the race, currently rated Safe Republican, just a couple of weeks ago.

The Louisiana delegation is rounded out by Republicans Steve Scalise of the southeastern 1st District and Rodney Alexander of the northeastern 5th District and Democrat Charlie Melancon of the south-central 3rd District. All are politically secure.

Scalise was elected in a May 3 special election in what is easily Louisiana's most Republican-leaning district to succeed Republican Bobby Jindal, who resigned to take the office of governor that he won in last fall's state election. Scalise will face the winner of a Democratic primary that includes businessman Jim Harlan and frequent candidate M.V. "Vinny" Mendoza.

Melancon's district is conservative-leaning, but he is a center-right Democrat who trounced a Republican state senator in 2006. No Republican filed to challenge Melancon.

Alexander -- who was elected to the House in 2002 as a Democrat, then switched without prior notice to the Republican Party in the final hours of the 2004 candidate filing period -- faces Andrew Clack in the Sept. 6 primary. Democrats, despite their lingering anger over Alexander's party switch, not did field a candidate against him this year.