Vermont GOP's Gov Hopes Hinge on What Dubie Will Do

Vermont's longtime reputation as a Yankee Republican stronghold has been relegated to history books. Democrats have had a strong upper hand over the past couple of decades, making a rare commodity of Jim Douglas, the moderate Republican who has been governor for four two-year terms.

With Douglas ready to retire, the odds shift to the Democrats, who already have three prominent candidates for their September 2010 primary: Vermont Secretary of State Deb Markowitz; state Sen. Susan Bartlett; and state Sen. Doug Racine, a former lieutenant governor who lost to Douglas in 2002 in a three-way race to succeed Democratic Gov. Howard Dean.

In order to compete, the Vermont Republicans will have to come up with a prominent candidate, and they don't have a deep bench of prospects. Much rides on Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who is weighing whether to take a shot at the state's top job.

Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately and not as a single ticket in Vermont, and Dubie points out that he received more popular votes than Douglas in 2008. He also predicts that any other Republican contemplating a possible bid for governor "would step aside for me."

There has been some chatter about a possible GOP bid by state Auditor Tom Salmon, whose father, Democrat Thomas P. Salmon, served as governor from 1973 to 1977. The younger Salmon was elected as a Democrat in 2006 and 2008, but on Sept. 8 switched to the Republican Party -- a rare move in Vermont these days -- based on his view that the Democrats had moved too far to the left.

Salmon said at the time of his party switch that he would likely run for re-election for auditor, with "a 10 percent chance," as he put it, that he will run for governor or lieutenant governor instead.

Among the Democrats running for governor, Garrison Nelson, a political science professor at University of Vermont, predicted that "it's going to be a close race between Racine and Markowitz." He said Racine would have to get past the image that he had a chance to win the governor's office when he ran against Douglas in 2002, but didn't.

Nelson expects Racine to argue that he has had more of an impact on setting statewide policy as a state senator than Markowitz has had as secretary of state.

At this stage of the contest, though, the candidates are just warming up their pitches and taking care to show adequate appreciation to the departing incumbent.

Douglas "deserves a great deal of respect and honor for his many years of public service and I don't want to diminish that, said Markowitz. She added, though, that "it's also time for some fresh energy and fresh approaches" to the problems facing the state.

Fellow Democratic candidate Bartlett also takes care to note accomplishments from Douglas' tenure. She described Dubie as a "very popular, nice guy, but conservative" -- an ideological brand that Democrats tend to wield as a perjorative in Vermont -- and predicted that if Dubie doesn't run, there will be a "heck of a stampede" on the Republican side.