CQ Politics' Senate Ratings: A Shift Toward Safety

In an update one year before Election Day 2010, CQ Politics has adjusted its ratings on the 2010 Senate races in eight states: Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Massachusetts, South Carolina, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

In all but one of these changes, the already favored incumbent or incumbent party now looks like a shoo-in, as both Democratic and Republican strategists have winnowed down their target lists.

Arkansas is the exception. There, Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln's re-election race seems to be developing into a nail-biter because of a decline in her job ratings and a surge of activity on the Republican side.

The Democrats, after playing mostly offense over the past two cycles, will be playing a mix of offense and defense in 2010 . They are going hard after GOP open seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio, and GOP incumbents in Louisiana and North Carolina. But they also have to shore up Democratic seats that appear highly vulnerable in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania and now Arkansas.

So Democratic officials have for all practical purposes shelved the prospect of testing the vulnerabilities of Republicans John McCain of Arizona, the GOP's 2008 presidential nominee; Johnny Isakson of Georgia; and John Thune of South Dakota. They also see little chance of a serious takeover bid for the Kansas seat that Republican Sam Brownback has left open to run for governor.

CQ Politics has changed its ratings on all of these races to Safe Republican from Likely Republican.

Democratic officials say they haven't given up on challenging first-term South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint, one of the Senate's most outspoken conservatives, who they argue is too much of an ideological hard-liner even for his right-leaning Southern state. But a year from Election Day, their top prospect, attorney Chad McGowan, has yet to prove he can present a legitimate threat to DeMint's re-election.

Republicans' chances in a pair of contests have also seriously faded. Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold, who has won three terms but never in a landslide, has only drawn two little-known contenders for the Republican nomination. A Senate special election to fill a vacant seat, such as the Jan. 19 Massachusetts contest to replace the late Democratic legend Edward M. Kennedy, can sometimes produce a rare opportunity - but the weight of the Democrats' advantage in that state and the strength of that party's candidate field virtually rule out a GOP upset.

CQ Politics has changed its rating on all of these races to Safe Democratic from Likely Democratic.

In Arkansas, where a crowd of GOP primary contenders has been attracted by in Democratic incumbent Lincoln's slipping poll numbers, CQ Politics has changed its rating to Leans Democratic from Likely Democratic.

Taking an Educated Pass New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. conceded in a briefing with reporters in September that the national party was not targeting the Republican incumbents in Arizona, Georgia and South Dakota, nor did it have a top-tier recruit in the open-seat race in Kansas.

"Obviously some of these states by the nature of them, like Kansas, is a bit more challenging" for recruiting, Menendez said.

In the case of Kansas, that might be a bit of an understatement, considering Democrats last won a Senate race there in 1932. The only Democrat publicly exploring the race is Charles Schollenberg, a communications executive and former journalist. The Republican primary, meanwhile, is a high-profile showdown between two high-profile U.S. House veterans, Jerry Moran of the 1st District and Todd Tiahrt of the 4th District.

In South Dakota, Democrats would have loved to put GOP incumbent Thune's feet to the fire. It was Thune, after all, who in 2004 narrowly unseated Democrat Tom Daschle, who then was the Senate minority leader.

But the Democrats' best shot at taking on Thune was lost when popular three-term Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the subject of recruiting entreaties from party officials, opted instead to pursue another House term. Attorney Matt McGovern - a grandson of former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, the 1972 Democratic presidential nominee - has now popped up as a potential candidate, but he would be a longshot should he decide to run.

Thune has built up an intimidating $5.5 million in cash reserves, according to his third quarter fundraising report.

Like Thune, South Carolina's DeMint is an irritant to Democratic activists, a status summed up in his contention earlier this year that President Barack Obama could face a political "Waterloo" if Republicans rallied and blocked passage of health care policy legislation. And Democrats say they should be able to build a serious dark-horse challenge around whomever emerges with their nomination.

Challenger McGowan, who could help fund his own campaign, entered the race in October and appears to be the preferred candidate of national Democrats. Former Ford executive Mike Ruckes also is in the race. And J. Ashley Cooper, a former aide to longtime Democratic Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings (1966-2005), is another potential Democratic candidate. But none of these candidates has the experience or state name ID to immediately register as a top-tier contender, and they will have to show some serious fundraising heft by year-end if they are to prevent DeMint from settling in as a shoo-in.

Georgia incumbent Isakson had to be a bit concerned about the 2008 Senate race in his home state, as fellow Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss had a close call. But Georgia remains one of the nation's most Republican-trending states, and none of the well-known prospects that Democrats hoped to coax into a challenge to Isakson, such as U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall or former Gov. Roy Barnes, could be tempted into a run. Barnes instead is seeking a comeback for governor after losing that office in a 2002 bid for re-election.

The Democrats initially considered a serious effort in Arizona after McCain, who had won four Senate terms by landslides, saw his home-state margin slip to 9 percentage points in his presidential contest against Obama. But recruiting faltered and the mood passed, leaving McCain, never a big favorite among Republican Party conservatives, more likely to face a serious challenge in the primary than the general election.

Barely Badgering Feingold

Likewise, Republicans have not mustered a prominent challenger to Wisconsin's Feingold, even though his 55 percent vote share over an unheralded GOP opponent in 2004 was a career high.

Wealthy real estate developer Terence Wall filed the paperwork Oct. 21 to seek the 2010 Republican nomination, and has the capacity to help fund his campaign. Small businessman Dave Westlake is also in the race. But polls show Feingold looking pretty comfortable, regardless of who his competition is. A poll by liberal blog Daily Kos in conjuction with Research 2000 conducted in early June pegged Feingold's favorability rating at 56 percent, 20 percentage points higher than his unfavorable rating.

Feingold led in hypothetical match-ups with two well-known Republicans, Rep. Paul Ryan and former Rep. Mark Green -- neither of whom has indicated an interest in challenging Feingold -- by approximately 20 percentage points each. And Feingold had socked away $3.1 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30.

Republican prospects for the Massachusetts Senate special election look dim. The GOP has a credible likely nominee in state Sen. [@Url@Scott Brown@ http://www.scottbrown.com/Bio.htm@], but he has low name ID statewide and faces serious fundraising challenges.

The leading Democratic primary hopefuls - state Attorney General Martha Coakley and U.S. Rep. Michael E. Capuano, both led Brown by double-digit percentages in hypothetical general election matchups, according to a Western New England College Polling Institute survey released Oct. 27.

The challenging parties' recruiting struggles in most of these states stem in part from the fact that the Senate races coincide with high-profile races for governor. As with Barnes in Georgia, higher-profile challenger candidates opted instead to run for governor in Arizona, Massachusetts, South Carolina, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

Arkansas: GOP Land of Opportunity? The Republicans may have the opposite problem in the Arkansas race, the only one among these races on which the CQ Politics rating moved to a more competitive category. The jam-packed Republican field includes state Sen. Gilbert Baker; Curtis Coleman, CEO of Safe Foods Corp.; state Sen. Kim Hedren; real estate executive Fred Ramey; and Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, among others.

The second-term Democrat has been in the spotlight, much to her discomfort, during the wrenching debate on the proposed health care policy overhaul, because of her pivotal position as a swing vote on the Senate Finance Committee. Republicans have been parsing her every vote and every statement, particularly on whether the legislation should contain a "public option" for a government-run health insurance plan.

But Lincoln also received a timely boost in September when she gained the chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee, a plum position given Arkansas' large farm sector. Lincoln moved up to succeed Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin, who claimed the chairmanship of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committed that was vacated by Kennedy's death on Aug. 25.

Baker raised $510,000 in the month since he declared his candidacy, and ended September with $504,000 in the bank. But Lincoln is prepared for the fight, with $4.1 million cash-on-hand at the end of the third quarter.