Economy - Monday

U.S. job market seen improving

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index rose 0.6 point 14 Oct. to 89.3, signaling companies will likely start hiring in early '10. The index "has likely turned a corner," said Gad Levanon, the board's senior economist. "We still expect to see employers adding hours to their existing work force before hiring will strongly increase."

St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard told the Financial Times that deflation remains a threat in the U.S. but that the Fed may have to change course quickly to keep inflation from spiking. German industrial output jumps

Production rose a better-than-expected 2.7% in Sept. on strong demand for capital goods. The gain in Europe's No. 1 economy boosted expectations for Q3 GDP growth figures for the 16-member euro area. Meanwhile, Sept. German exports rose 3.8% while imports rose by the most in more than a year, signaling that world trade was rebounding.

The French economy is expected to grow 0.5% (not annualized) in Q4 on stronger industrial output and service-sector activity, the Bank of France said. Q3 GDP figures due Fri. are expected to show a 0.3% rise. Euro zone investor sentiment rose to a 17-month high of -7 in Nov. from -12.6 in Oct., the Sentix research group said. The expectations gauge jumped 6.25 points to 12, the highest since June '07. Moody's upgrades China outlook

The credit ratings agency changed the outlook for China's A1 rating to positive from stable as the economy has remained "resilient, robust and relatively stable" through the economic crisis. It added that China's banking system was coming out of the crisis in relatively good shape. Moody's also raised its outlook on Hong Kong's Aa2 rating to positive.

Central banks to trim stimulus

They will gradually reduce extraordinary measures taken during the financial crisis, said European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet: "Those of us who have embarked on nonconventional measures, there is an element of gradual and timely phasing out of some of these measures. We're very convinced there are a lot of risks that remain." However, he said the risks to global growth and inflation were currently balanced.