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How confident should the GOP be about 2010?

Republicans are in buoyant mood following this weeks elections. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele declared a "Republican renaissance" was underway after the GOP won the Governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, but lost a special election to fill a vacant House seat in upstate New York.

Looking ahead to the midterm elections next year, just how confident should Republicans be? The Intrade markets show that although the GOP are expected to make gains the Democrats are comfortably expected to maintain control of both the House and Senate.

The market shows a 67% probability of the Democrats holding onto the House of Representatives. This is down from 75% two months ago however. The market is far more certain about the Senate, with a 90% chance of the Democrats remaining in control of the upper house.