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Temperatures rise over "Cap-and-Trade"

Temperatures are rising as the Democrats try to navigate their climate change bill through Congress. The bill, which would establish and cap-and-trade system to limit greenhouse gas emissions, is stalled in the Senate as Republicans boycott committee hearings.

Chairman of the Environment and Public Works committee Barbara Boxer (D-Ca.) is considering using a loophole in committee rules to bypass the boycott and approve the bill. Doubts remain that the bill would pass a floor vote however. Ben Nelson (D-Neb) has stated that cap-and-trade will not pass during this session of Congress.

So will a cap-and-trade system be established anytime soon in the United States? The Intrade market considers it unlikely. There is a 35% chance of cap-and-trade becoming a reality before the end of 2010. There is an increased probability of 50% before the end of 2011.