12 seconds ago 2009-12-04T07:50:04-08:00
Iran continues to frustrate the Obama administration's attempts at diplomacy. Last week the Iranians demanded changes to an agreement between Iran and the US, France and Russia to export existing nuclear material for reprocessing under international supervision.
President Obama has stressed a preference for engagement with Iran. But what will happen if diplomacy fails? Although Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has hinted that "crippling sanctions" will be the administrations weapon of choice, military action has not been ruled out.
The Intrade markets show a low probability of 4.6% that a military strike by the US or Israel will happen by the end of this year. This probability increases to 19.4% for the end of June 2010 and is 30.2% for the end of December 2010. Diplomacy will continue for now but at present the market is not fully confident of success.
