House opposition wilts

Barack Obama called Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings on Tuesday with a promise: As president, he would revisit bankruptcy laws to give judges more leeway to prevent foreclosures.

Obama didn't need to lay out a quid pro quo because the message was clear.

Cummings, who voted against the financial-markets bailout on Monday, told Obama he was “open” to changing his vote but wasn’t there yet.

"I have to look beyond [the bailout] to a rainbow called Obama," he said. "When you bring in the Obama factor, that's very very important."

As the final high stakes vote on the bailout bill approaches Friday, Cummings is not alone among lawmakers who have found solid reasons to reconsider their vote. Whether it's the "Obama factor," or the fact that billions in new tax incentives have been added to the bailout bill, it's becoming clear that opposition is wilting to the $700 billion financial rescue plan just in time for a second House vote on Friday.

After a blitz of last-minute lobbying, Republicans and the Bush administration are hoping to get in the neighborhood of 80 to 85 GOP votes on the bailout bill after garnering only 65 on Monday. And Democrats are hoping to build slightly on the 140 lawmakers who supported the bill earlier this week.

The outcome still hangs on the prerogatives of a dozen or so wavering lawmakers in both parties, but congressional leaders are “cautiously optimistic” about the outcome Friday even after watching their rank and file sink the initial bill on Monday in a public revolt that shook financial markets around the world.

Thursday brought another round of public – and private – reversals, with Georgia Rep. John Lewis, a prominent member of the Congressional Black Caucus, telling colleagues at a closed-door meeting that he would support the bailout plan, according to people present – Lewis wouldn’t confirm as he left the meeting, but said, “Just watch the board.”

Republicans, from retiring Minnesota Rep. Jim Ramstad to Tennessee Rep. Zach Wamp, and Democrats, from Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley to Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, all declared on Thursday they would support the current bill, according to various news sources.

It's important to note that nothing is certain until the gavel falls Friday, so none of these public or private declaration means a thing until that point.

“We’re still looking at it,” said Rep. Pete Hoekstra, another lawmaker rethinking his vote.

The Michigan Republican is more attracted to the Senate package than the initial bill because it would raise the amount of money the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. insures, from $100,000 to $250,000. Hoekstra told Vice President Dick Cheney on Monday to make that change and is pleased to see it has been included.

Hoekstra is also more open to the bailout package now that SEC Chairman Chris Cox agreed to give companies more leeway in pricing their assets.

But he is upset about “all the pork in the bill,” referring to a number of tax extensions in the legislation tailored to specific industries, like a break for wooden arrows that has been mocked by watchdog groups sifting through the 450-page Senate version of the bill.

Obama, the White House and business leaders from across the country have all bombarded Capitol Hill with phone calls, e-mails and personal visits since the House sank an initial bailout bill Monday. President Bush even gave business lobbyists a list of targeted lawmakers to contact before Friday’s vote as the key constituencies emerge.

And time is increasingly important, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping another 348 points on Thursday. As one GOP aide suggested, the House either passes the bill this week or it never gets done.

With Lewis and Cleaver changing their votes and others, like Cummings, now on the fence, Democrats and Republicans alike were predicting significant movement from the Congressional Black Caucus.

One member pointed to Reps. G.K. Butterfield of North Carolina, Jesse Jackson, Jr. of Illinois and David Scott of Georgia. Scott has been working with Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and other leaders to address the CBC concerns.

One big question mark remains Democratic budget hawks in the Blue Dog Caucus, who are “uniformly upset” with the Senate for attaching the rescue package to a series of popular tax extensions that add more than $100 billion to the overall cost of the bill.

But so far, none of the Blue Dogs have changed from "yes" to "no."

Emerging from a meeting with a Blue Dogs on Thursday afternoon, Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) said, “Nobody (in the room) announced they were going to be opposed.”

But Tennessee Rep. John Tanner said, “The Blue Dogs are uniformly upset about what the Senate did without paying for extensions.” And others leaving the session backed up his claim, but most of them acknowledge that they don’t have a choice but to accept the new package.

“We don’t have any alternative,” Tennessee Rep. Jim Cooper said after emerging from a meeting with the Blue Dogs. “What choice to do we have?”

Cooper suggested the Thursday was “part of the therapy” after the Senate added more than $100 billion to the deficit. “You have to vent.”

There was talk Thursday those lawmakers would cast a protest vote against the rule allowing for debate on the bailout, but nothing was confirmed.

On the other side of the aisle, conservatives complained after Monday’s vote that party leaders never reached out to them, so Minority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) attended a Thursday afternoon meeting of the Republican Study Committee.

Blunt listened to their concerns, but he wasn’t expected to find many converts. Leaving the meeting, Texas Rep. Joe Barton predicted the reversals among his GOP colleagues would “probably be in the single digits.” Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, a well-respected conservative who backs the measure, said “not a lot” of his colleagues in the Republican Study Committee would switch their votes.

As RSC members left the session for an evening vote, protestors from the liberal anti-war group Code Pink encouraged the conservative Republicans to “stay strong” in their opposition – the ultimate sign that this debate has produced some very strange bedfellows.

Republican leaders, who are still reeling from a humiliating defeat on Monday, sought to limit debate on the rescue package on Friday in to prevent opposition from snowballing.

GOP leadership staff petitioned Democrats on Thursday to limit debate on the bill to an hour after allowing lawmakers three hours to debate the plan on Monday. This is an extraordinary turnabout for House Republicans, who have bitterly complained in the past that Democrats aren't allowing open debate and a fair amendment process.

On the bailout, Republicans would rather just line up their people and have a quick vote, it seems, rather than letting the debate get out of control again.

Opponents don't have the momentum, but they are still making a strong case in the waning hours. Many offered alternatives, including Ohio Rep. Steven C. LaTourette who wants to reduce the total cost of the measure by $450 billion to $250 billion.

As expected, the Rules Committee blocked all 15 amendments offered Thursday night, so the bill will come to the floor unaltered after the Senate approved it, 74-25, in a dramatic vote the previous evening.

Even as leaders work together whipping votes, though, there's still a significant level of mistrust.

Democratic leaders have made the case all week that Republicans are responsible for corralling the necessary votes – all while emphasizing the bipartisan spirit of this legislation.

The debate over who is responsible for this finanical crisis is bound to become more partisan once lawmakers leave town.

Democrats have already announced a new round of hearings to discover the root causes of this financial meltdown, including a session with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, insuring that economic concerns will be a focus whatever the outcome on Friday.

“This isn’t our last act,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters on Thursday. “We’ll have plenty of time to do more.”

-Glenn Thrush, Daniel W. Reilly, John Bresnahan and Ryan Grim contributed to this story.