McCain planner shows no room for error

PERKASIE, Pa.—While aides to John McCain continue to express confidence about their chances, an analysis of the two candidates' recent travel schedules shows McCain playing defense as both candidates spend the bulk of their time on traditionally Republican turf.

Little penetrates through the spin that swirls around a campaign like a look at where it chooses to allocate its valuable and limited candidate time.

Both candidates have spent the last week—and plan to spend the final days of the campaign—stumping almost entirely in states that went for President Bush in the last presidential election. 

On Monday, McCain will embark on a single-day seven-state tour with stops in Florida, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona—all except Pennsylvania states that Bush won in 2004.

Obama on Monday will campaign through Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, following visits this weekend in Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and Ohio—all states Bush won in 2004.

Between Monday and Saturday, McCain campaigned in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia—again, all except Pennsylvania states that Bush won in 2004 . Twelve of his 20 events were held in counties that preferred Bush and seven were in strongholds that favored Bush by more than 10 points, suggesting the campaign is concerned about about Republican turnout even in highly conservative areas.

By contrast, Obama during that stretch visited nine Republican states and a single Democratic state, Pennsylvania. He's held 16 events: nine in Bush '04 counties and seven in Kerry '04 counties. Six of the events were held in counties decided by five points or less.

Senior campaign aide Robert Gibbs said the Obama team goes to areas within competitive states where Democrats made up “20 percent of the vote and [we can] make it 25 percent of the vote, or how do we go into a place that is 15 percent of the vote and make it 20 percent of the vote.”

“If you can do that, you're changing those underlying numbers in a big way,” Gibbs said to reporters after a rally this week in Sarasota, Fla., a county Bush won in 2004 by eight points. “We look at some of these regions differently than traditional campaigns have and that is from the perspective of having registered voters and now identifying supporters and getting them to the polls.” .

The strategy parallels Obama's approach to the primary election, when his campaign focused on adding to their delegate count even in states they had no chance of taking the majority of the delegates, while Hillary Clinton's campaign focused on "winning" states.

On Friday, the campaign announced it would work to further extend the map by airing TV ads in North Dakota, Georgia and McCain’s home state of Arizona. And on Saturday, he sought to shore up his vote in Clark County, Nev., and Pueblo County, Co.— both of which Kerry won in 2004. He then headed into the Republican stronghold of Springfield, Mo., which gave Bush 62 percent of the vote in the last election.

“We’re pretty jazzed up about what we’re seeing as movement in this election,” McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, told reporters that morning. “We are witnessing, I believe, probably one of the greatest comebacks that you’ve seen since John McCain won the primary.”

The McCain campaign says that Obama’s attempts to expand into new areas in the final hours show he doesn’t have the votes to win with his base alone, even if the campaign brings new Democratic voters to the polls.

On Friday, Davis pointed to Obama’s return to Iowa as evidence that the Democrat is as not as confident about wining the state as polling suggests.

“Our own data has us dead even in the state of Iowa," he said.

A McCain memo sent out by the campaign on late Friday night claims that internal polling shows a surge in support for the Republican in Iowa, Colorado, and several southwestern states.

"We encourage [the Obama campaign] to please pick other states that we intend to win to spend their campaign cash and spread it out as much as they can," said Davis.

Obama chief strategist David Axelrod scoffed at the idea that the campaign would spend money for the sake of it.

"We don't do stuff for show," Axelrod said Saturday. "It is narrowing, and we are competing for whatever electoral votes we can get."