Same-sex marriage issue on back burner

Same-sex marriage, a hot issue in the 2004 campaign, has been but a blip on the national political scene in 2008 despite a new round of state ballot measures to ban it. The country’s economic woes have eclipsed social issues among voters, and neither John McCain nor Barack Obama has tended to raise such charged social issues.

Four years ago, a CNN exit poll found that 22 percent of voters made their choice based on “moral values,” outranking the economy and terrorism. Eighty percent of “values voters” that year cast their ballot for President Bush, as against just 18 percent for Sen. John Kerry, according to exit polls.

But a recent CBS/New York Times poll of 1,234 likely voters found far fewer voters basing their vote on values this year, with more than half listing the economy as their top concern, followed by terrorism, health care, energy, the Iraq war and illegal immigration. “Values” were among the “other” issues that were the chief concern of just 6 percent of voters.

On Tuesday, though, voters in California, Arizona and Florida will decide whether to approve constitutional bans on gay marriage.

In California a state Supreme Court decision granting the right for gay and lesbian couples to wed laid the groundwork for a massive statewide campaign against it that some gay marriage opponents are calling the “Super Bowl” of the issue.

Polls are tightening—a Field Poll released Friday showed 49-to-44 percent against the measure—but analysts say it’s too close to call. “It’s anybody’s guess how this turns out,” said John J. Pitney Jr., a political science professor at California’s Claremont McKenna College.

While it’s been the most expensive state ballot measure this cycle, it’s yet to attract much national attention.

“If California votes overwhelmingly in favor of traditional marriage that’ll be very interesting because you’d have a liberal state saying no to Steve and Bill getting married,” said Tim Wildmon, president of the American Family Association, which has thrown $500,000 behind the proposition.

In Arizona and Florida, the issue of same-sex marriage has yet to really resonate as several tight campaigns are grabbing headlines in both states.

Bruce Merrill, an Arizona pollster who runs the Arizona State University/KAET poll, said the state’s measure “has not gotten much attention.”

“Like in other places the economy has taken the steam out this issue,” Merrill said.

In 2006, Arizona became the only state so far to reject a constitutional ban on gay marriage. That initiative, though, also included language barring gay couples from rights granted in civil unions such as insurance benefits and hospital visitation.

The current measure, which includes no such stipulations, is supported by 49 percent of Arizonans, while 42 percent say they will vote against it, according to the most recent Merrill poll of 976 registered voters.

In Florida a recent poll of 625 likely voters conducted by Mason-Dixon showed that voters favor the ban 56-37 percent, which would be short of the 60 percent majority needed in the state for voters to pass a ballot measure.

Some have pointed to the issue as responsible for driving up turnout among both social conservatives and liberals in 2004. This year, polls suggest that is unlikely to happen. Both Pitney and Merrill doubt the issue will have much impact on other elections.

A huge Democratic turnout for Obama in the three states, however, may determine the fate of the closely contested measures. While a constitutional ban on gay marriage is widely opposed in most Democratic circles, a large turnout among Hispanics, whose Catholic faith stands against the issue, could give the ballot measures a boost.

Neither Obama nor McCain has been eager to debate highly-charged social issues, and gay marriage has been tricky for both.

Obama does not support gay marriage, but opposes proposition 8 and would not support a federal constitutional ban. Some have speculated that the Illinois Democrats does in fact favor granting same sex couples the right to marry, pointing to his liberal social views and strong opposition to laws restricting the rights of any segment of the population.

Obama has told supporters his view on the issue stems from his Christian faith, though has said he is “open to the possibility” that he may be wrong on the issue.

McCain meanwhile splits with both his running mate and the conservative base on the issue in also standing against a constitutional ban. The Arizona Republican was one of the few members of his party to stand with Democrats in the Senate in opposition to federal ban on gay marriage, citing his strongly held belief that states should decide the issue individually.

“There is no point for either of them to bring this up,” Pitney said. “California is not in play and neither candidate wants to dwell on the issue.”

Wildmon said he and other social conservatives wish McCain would campaign on the issue, but recognizes that it doesn’t exactly play to McCain’s strengths.

“He wasn’t in favor of a federal marriage amendment so that sort of neuters him from talking about this,” Wildmon said. “He seems to be uncomfortable talking about moral issues.”

“Palin seems plenty comfortable talking about it. She’s not bashful. I’d turn her loose, but she’s not the top of the ticket and McCain has to answer for everything she says,” added Wildmon.