38 seconds ago 2009-12-05T06:11:49-08:00
Barack Obama is on track to be the first Democrat to win a majority of the vote since 1976, according to the final pre-election poll by the Pew Research Center.
Obama leads John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent, by Pew’s measure, which projects that McCain will win undecided voters by a slight margin.
Pew’s final pre-election poll in 2004, including its projection of the undecided vote, correctly predicted that George W. Bush would defeat John Kerry 51 to 48 percent.
When undecided voters are excluded, Obama's lead in the Pew poll increases slightly, to 49-42.
“McCain … is getting the boost that Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote,” Pew notes.
The Gallup Poll’s latest three-day average also shows Obama on track for a narrow majority in the popular vote. Its expanded likely voter model has Obama ahead 52-43, while its traditional likely voter model, which considers past voting behavior, shows a similar 51-43 advantage. Gallup has yet to issue its final pre-election poll.
Pew’s final pre-election poll this year included 2,587 likely voters interviewed on landline and cell phones and was conducted Wednesday to Saturday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
