The states to watch

It's Election Day!

As of close of business Monday night, Barack Obama had a 7.3-point lead in the Real Clear Politics national poll average.  

But presidential elections are not decided by popular vote. They're decided by the Electoral College. What matters here is how individual states vote, so we'll take a look at the individual state polls heading into D-Day.

If Americans cast their ballots in a manner consistent with Monday's final state poll averages, Obama would win 338 electoral votes, far surpassing the 270 needed to win the presidency. Don't bank on it though. People may not cast their votes the way the polls predict and that makes this race a lot less of a sure thing than most people are saying.

A snapshot of the Yahoo! News Political Dashboard Monday night

Here's a quick recap of what the state poll averages looked like as of Monday night for the big-get states, the swing states and the states that are surprisingly in play.  

The Big Three

Pennsylvania: Obama + 7.6
Democrats have carried this state worth 21 electoral votes for the past four elections. But the big story here is that John McCain has significantly closed what was once a double-digit point deficit in the poll average.

Florida: Obama + 1.8
Twenty-seven electoral votes at stake make this an important state to win for McCain. He has been ahead here for the majority of the election season. Obama took the lead at the end of September, but the margin has never been consistent. The last Mason-Dixon poll says it's too close to call.

Ohio: Obama +3.2
The state that decided it in 2004 gets some of the spotlight again because of its large electoral vote offering (20) and its capacity to swing.  Who wins this state might depend on which voters decide to stick out the wait in the long voting lines.

Toss-up states

Indiana: McCain +1.4
This state will be an early indicator of how the night will play out since its polls close first.  If Obama flips this traditionally red state, the rest of the night looks really bad for McCain. But the most recent polls show McCain ahead.

Virginia: Obama + 4.3
The Virginia polls are one of the biggest stories in this election. If Obama wins this state (and a collection of western states), the 13 electoral votes it offers become Obama's route to 270 if McCain wins the Big Three.

The Western swing states

Colorado: Obama +5.5
Big crowds and a series of good poll numbers make this state look like one Obama can flip back to blue.  The last time Colorado voted Democratic for a president was in 1992.

Nevada: Obama +6.2
Nevada was red during the Bush years and blue during the Clinton years.  Obama took the lead in polling in early October and has held the lead since.

New Mexico: Obama +7.3
This state has been shockingly close in the last two elections.  Al Gore won in 2000 by less than 1,000 votes.  

The Icing states
Reliably red states now seem to be up for grabs. McCain leads the poll averages in North Carolina, Georgia and Montana but only by the slimmest of margins. (All three voted for a Republican in the last three elections.)  Andrew Romano at Newsweek calls these "icing states." In other words, if Obama wins here, he's probably already won in the bigger-get states.  These suddenly blue states are then the icing on the cake in an Obama landslide scenario.

-- Liz Green