COMMENTARY | A poll by the American Research Group shows Rick Santorum with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to CNN. Public Policy Polling is giving a wider 39 percent to 24 percent margin to Santorum, according to the Detroit Free Press. As someone who has studied politics in Michigan for years, I do not see how Romney was ever projected to win the state.
Michigan conservative voters have shown they care more about fiscal policy than social policy. The current governor, Rick Snyder, won by pressing his ideals of being fiscally conservative and rarely saying much about social issues. This is a strong contrast to the fiscal liberalness that Romney has been portrayed with throughout the course of the Republican race. While not being labeled as fiscally conservative, Santorum at least would appease to more of the conservative voters in the state.
Santorum has made the case about how his views on abortion and gay marriage are unwavering. The authoritarianism he promotes easily points out how he is a social conservative. Strangely, Michigan voters have not had a social conservative governor since Frank Fitzgerald, who died in office in 1939.
Most Republican governors have been socially liberal (including Romney's father) or have not run a social campaign. Gov. Snyder and former Gov. John Engler (1991-2003) deferred or ignored most social questions in attempts to focus on economic issues.
In the case of social conservatism, I see Michigan voters putting those issues on a back burner in support of financial conservatism. This would go with past practice in the state and would boost someone who was more fiscally conservative like Santorum above Romney. When you look at how hard Michigan was hit be the economic downturn, it makes sense the population of the state would care more about having a job than having health care or debating marriage rights.
Many people considered Michigan as a cakewalk for Romney since he was raised in the state and his father was a former governor. His style of moderate to liberal fiscal policy does not fit with the voting history of the state. I am not saying social conservatism is unimportant to all Michigan voters. If it was less of an issue, Santorum would be winning Michigan by a landslide.
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