Sec. Kerry Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zone in Syria
In a meeting last week, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry instructed the National Security Council and State Department staff to update plans for a potential U.S.-led no-fly zone in Syria, CNN reports. Options include a potential area along the Syrian-Turkish border, which Ankara has encouraged for months, or possibly an area in southern Syria along the Jordanian border. “What the secretary has been doing is looking for ways to increase pressure on ISIL, ease the humanitarian burden, and increase leverage for diplomacy to end the conflict,” an administration official said, noting that the no-fly zone is “one of many ideas that he and others discussed.” President Obama has been skeptical of the no-fly zone proposals, but he agreed to increase efforts to resupply U.S.-supported rebels in Syria.
After two incursions into Turkish airspace over the weekend, a Russian jet on Monday locked its radar onto Turkish fighter jets on Monday. In remarks on Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that an “attack on Turkey means an attack on Nato,” alluding to NATO’s Article V collective defense provision. “Russia is a friend but if the repeated incursions continue, we will perceive it as a threat and not as friendly behaviour,” a spokesperson for Turkey’s governing political party explained.
Gangs Tried to Sell Nuclear Material to Islamic State for Dirty Bombs
The FBI has quietly broken up several attempts by criminal gangs in Eastern Europe trying to sell nuclear material to the Islamic State, according to an investigation by the Associated Press. The material, including enough cesium “to contaminate several city blocks” in one recent bust, could have been used for use in dirty bombs. “We can expect more of these cases,” a Moldovan police officer told the AP. “As long as the smugglers think they can make big money without getting caught, they will keep doing it.”
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Headlines
Israeli authorities lifted restrictions on Muslims’ access to the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, but tensions between Israelis and Palestinians continued in the West Bank, where soldiers and Palestinian youths clashed after a funeral.
The Islamic State took credit for an attack in Aden yesterday targeting a hotel used by government officials — which was a car bomb attack and not a rocket attack as previously reported — and also bombed the al-Nour mosque in Sanaa, killing seven people.
The EU offered to resettle more Syrian refugees in exchange for Turkey increasing its maritime patrols and setting up more refugee camps; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on European countries to implement a safe zone in Syria to alleviate the refugee crisis.
Though economic activity in the the Middle East has been depressed this year by conflicts in the region, a new report from the International Monetary Fund predicts rebounds next year “supported by accelerated activity in the Islamic Republic of Iran” as sanctions are lifted under the recent nuclear agreement.
Five people have been arrested in Australia after an Iranian-born teenager of Iraqi and Kurdish descent shot and killed a police officer in what the prime minister said “appears to have been an act of terrorism.”
Arguments and Analysis
“Federalism, conflict and fragmentation in Yemen” (Peter Salisbury, Saferworld)
“The Houthi takeover also highlighted the dangers of prioritising political agreements on long-term macro goals over short-term stability and service provision.45 In part, Yemen’s war has been sparked because of the mistrust caused by the manoeuvering around the federalism question — although it should be noted that the Houthis have also, consistently, acted in bad faith during their rise to power. The Saudi-led coalition air strikes and violent conflict currently taking place have given new currency to the idea of federalism and it would appear that at a minimum a future political settlement in Yemen will almost certainly have to contain elements of deep decentralisation of government. But the Yemeni experience to date serves as proof that federalism as a model, a system that takes decades to implement, is not a solution in and of itself to the problems of the kind faced by Yemen and countries like it; nor should it be presented as one. Rather, federalism is a tool that will work only when the necessary political climate is in place and there is popular buy-in to the model.”
“Russian Roulette in Syria” (The Soufan Group)
“Russia may find it hard to admit, but Assad’s refusal to negotiate until all his opponents are defeated is not in his interests. The Iranians will share this view. First, that time will never come, and second, both the Russians and Iranians— though perhaps for different reasons, need the war to end sooner rather than later. As well as the United States and Turkey, Russia’s involvement in support of Assad puts it at odds with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states. If Russia ends up maintaining a pro-Iranian regime in Syria, the Gulf states are likely to resent its engagement for many years to come. This would run counter to a perceived Russian objective of undermining U.S. regional influence to its own benefit. As for Iran, allowing Russia to take over as Assad’s main protector threatens its ability to ensure that Damascus remains a safe and secured route to Lebanon. The continued strength of Hizballah is of more interest to Iran than the preservation of Assad. Hence there is a coincidence of interest between Iran and Russia to see negotiations start before Syria’s collapse traps them in the quagmire predicted by President Obama during his visit to the United Nations in September.”
-J. Dana Stuster
HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP/Getty Images
