Situation Report: War plans (kind of) revealed; Persian Gulf incident still a mystery; Russian deathbots coming; Syrian death toll disputed; Navy’s new plan; Turkey wants more U.S. help; and lots more

By Paul McLeary with Adam Rawnsley

Back in. It falls to the 101st Airborne Division, again, to take the Iraqi city of Mosul. Only unlike 2003 when thousands of U.S. troops pushed their way into the densely populated city, about 1,800 troops from the unit will soon deploy to Iraq to train Iraqi forces to retake the Islamic State-held stronghold.

Speaking to troops from the 101st at Fort Campbell, Ky. Wednesday, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said there are “big arrows pointing at both Mosul and Raqqa,” and the fight “will begin by collapsing” the group’s control over both cities before moving on to other areas of Iraq and Syria. It was as close to an actual strategy as we’ve heard articulated by a U.S. official since the U.S.-led coalition began bombing ISIS positions in August, 2014.

He also said that more American commandos have arrived in Iraq “to begin going after ISIL’s fighters and commanders, killing or capturing them wherever we find them.” Carter first announced the deployment of up to 200 special operators in December, in what he said would be a combat mission. Their deployment follows the dispatch of about 50 U.S. commandos to Syria to advise local militia forces.

Road show. The secretary is headed to Paris next week to meet with defense leaders from France, Australia, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the U.K. in his effort to get allies to do more to fight the Islamic State.

Oops. Carter’s remarks come almost a year after U.S. military officials inexplicably promised they would train about 25,000 local forces to retake Mosul by May 2015. Within days, the U.S. Central Command backtracked after sharp criticism from Congress and Carter himself.

Not so modest Turkish proposal. While the 3,500 U.S. troops in Iraq — along with several hundred from allied countries — are preparing the Iraqis and Kurds for the coming fights, Pentagon officials are considering a Turkish request to help them train and equip Sunni Arab fighters inside Syria. The program could go a long way in securing the border region between Syria and Turkey, something that Washington has been pressing to Turks to make a priority. The plan follows the cancellation of a $500 million U.S. effort to train and equip thousands of moderate Syrian forces inside Syria to fight Islamic State. The effort only produced a handful of fighters.

No word. American defense officials remained quiet Wednesday over how two Navy patrol boats ended up in Iranian waters earlier this week, leading to the capture of 10 sailors. The sailors were held overnight and released Wednesday morning, and the Iranians have said they believe it was little more than a mistake. It doesn’t help matters, however, that the Iranians gleefully released video footage of the initial capture, and of one sailor apologizing for entering Iranian waters.

Syrian numbers. How many Syrians have died in that country’s tragic civil war? Depends on who you ask. FP’s Colum Lynch delivers a smart piece on the quiet debate over the number, which many put at about 250,000. But there is no way to really tell, Lynch writes, in part because the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights stopped counting Syria’s dead in the summer of 2014, “citing lack of access to killing zones and an ever-diminishing confidence in data sources.” One little-noticed fact Lynch points out is that the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims that over the past year, more Syrian regime forces (17,600) died than civilians (13,000). And most estimates put the number of civilians killed by ISIS at several thousand.

Good morning, all. We’re less than two weeks into 2016, and it’s been a pretty busy year so far. As always, if you have any thoughts, announcements, tips, or national security-related events to share, please pass them along to SitRep HQ! Best way is to send them to paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley.

Air Force

The beloved A-10 Warthog appears to have won a temporary reprieve from the Air Force’s attempt to put it in mothballs. Defense One reports that Air Force leaders are putting the plane’s retirement on hold as the venerable plane deploys to Syria to support U.S.-allied forces taking on the Islamic State. But the Warthog has only won the battle, not the war, as Air Force brass still say they plan on shelving the A-10 to accommodate the F-35.

Pentagonese

“Distributed lethality.” Learn it. Love it. The U.S. Navy already does. Speaking at a conference earlier this week, Vice Adm. Thomas Rowden, commander of the Navy’s surface forces, proclaimed the Navy is really into the idea. “What is distributed lethality?” he helpfully asked. “It’s increasing offensive power. It’s defensive hardening of our individual ships. It’s employing them in a more distributed manner. It’s holding more adversaries at risk across a wider geography.” Sounds suspiciously like what we thought the Navy was already doing, though now they want to do it with new weapons — and likely more money to buy them.

Another grim day in bombings

A suicide bomber tied to the Islamic State struck in Istanbul on Wednesday, killing 10 German tourists. The Wall Street Journal reports that the bomber was a Syrian citizen, born in Saudi Arabia, who had recently registered in Turkey as a refugee and whose brother had also carried out a suicide attack at an airport in Syria. The bomber set off no alarms with Turkish authorities upon entering the country and registering as a refugee. Turkey said Thursday that in retaliation, its artillery attacked ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria.

Turkey suffered a second bombing this week as a car bomb detonated near a police headquarters in the country’s southeast early Thursday, killing five people and wounding at least 39 in Diyarbakir province. No suspect has been identified by name yet but Turkish officials are already pointing to the PKK Kurdish militant group. The Turkish military has launched a recent offensive against the group in the country’s southeast.

The Islamic State’s semi-official news agency, Amaq, says the terror group is responsible for a deadly attack in Jakarta, Indonesia Thursday. The attackers set off explosions at a Starbucks cafe in a busy shopping center in the country’s capital, and then fought a running gunbattle with police that left five attackers and two civilians dead, while 10 others were injured.

al Qaeda

Al-Qaeda released a batch of new messages from al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri Wednesday, publishing two audio tapes and a text statement on the Internet, according to the Long War Journal. The messages criticize Saudi Arabia for its recent execution of 47 prisoners, including a number of convicted terrorists with links to al Qaeda and calls for the overthrow of the Saudi leadership. Zawahiri also highlights southeast Asia’s potential as a jihadist battlefield and criticizes Saudi Arabia’s recent Riyadh conference for Syria’s opposition groups.

Philippines

The Philippines is asking the U.S. to hold joint patrols with its navy in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, where China has laid claim to vast swaths of maritime territory. Word of the request came as Filipino defense and foreign ministry officials visited Washington for talks. The Philippines has grown increasingly anxious at China’s territorial ambitions, increasing its defense budget and offering up bass for the United States to use as a hedge against conflict with the People’s Republic.

Aw dude, seriously?

North Korea is steamed after the Davos World Economic Forum rescinded an invitation for the Hermit Kingdom to come to Switzerland for the annual economic policy equivalent of Burning Man. In a letter, North Korea called the move “seriously unjust” and darkly intoned that the Davos organizers will be “responsible for the consequences to be entailed by its unfriendly measure.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is a former resident of Switzerland, having studied at an elite boarding school near Berne in his youth.

Robots of death

Russia has a new unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) in its arsenal, the RS1A3 Mini Rex, and it’s packing heat. The Mini Rex, made by KB Integrated Systems, looks like many a tactical SWAT bot, with two tracks and an arm fitted with a 7.62mm gun. It’s small and light enough to pack up in a backpack and is intended for use in police and counterterrorism operations.

Coast Guard

The Coast Guard is looking to buy another ice-breaker ship, which many analysts have said is a crucial capability as global warming opens up arctic sea lanes to countries like China and Russia, National Defense Magazine reports. The Coast Guard has issued a requirement for the ice-breaker and published an acquisition timeline for acquisition on the Internet. The service has two breakers in service, but one is aging and the other was designed primarily for research.