The under-the-radar detail explaining why step back for Heat is risky. And Woj on Heat

Since LeBron James left for Cleveland and the Heat’s Big 3 broke up 10 years ago, the Heat has never believed in the idea of taking one step back to take two steps forward.

Trading their top veteran players for draft picks and unproven young players isn’t something the Heat generally does.

And even with the Heat one loss from a first-round playoff exit against Boston, performances like the Game 2 win in Boston (and the playoff run a year ago) continue to give the Heat brass hope that this core — with a key addition — could compete for a championship.

So the Heat, in general, isn’t of the mind-set to rebuild — not with this group, and rarely ever.

But any unlikely decision to take a step back in 2024-2025 — with the hope of taking a step forward soon after — is even more unlikely because it carries a serious consequence: It would leave Miami at risk of losing two very high draft picks in the next five years.

Here’s why:

The Heat owes a lottery-protected first-round pick to Oklahoma City in 2025. But if the Heat was to take a step back next season and miss the playoffs, then the Thunder would get the Heat’s 2026 unprotected first-round pick instead of Miami’s 2025 first-round pick.

In that specific scenario, Charlotte then would get Heat’s unprotected first-round pick in 2028 (as part of the Terry Rozier trade) instead of Miami’s protected first-round pick in 2027.

That adjustment would be required in order for the Heat to comply with an NBA rule preventing teams from trading future first-round picks in consecutive years.

Because of that rule, the Heat can now trade only one future first-round draft pick (in 2030). But Miami theoretically could trade its 2024 first-round pick as well if it has a prearranged trade on draft night and Miami selects a player on behalf of that other team.

That would be the only scenario where the Heat could essentially trade two of its own first-round picks in the coming months. The Heat would be free to trade a first-round pick that it acquires from another team.

Teams can trade first-round picks seven years out. So most teams can trade a 2031 first-round pick after the date of this year’s NBA Draft. But the Heat can trade only its 2030 or 2031 first-year pick — not both. So the seven-year-out rule doesn’t free up another first-round pick for Miami to trade for another 16 months.

The broader point is that missing the playoffs next season could come with potentially grave consequences for Miami. In that scenario, the Thunder would get Miami’s first-round pick in 2026, even if it’s the first pick in the draft. And in that scenario, the Hornets would get Miami’s first-round pick in 2028, even if it’s the first pick in the draft.

So the Heat needs to make the playoffs next season, which would result in OKC getting Miami’s non-lottery first-round pick in 2025. And that also would preserve the 2027 lottery protections on the first-round pick that Miami owes Charlotte in 2027 or 2028.

One postscript: The only way the Heat could trade two future first-round picks would be if it tells Oklahoma City Thunder officials that they can take Miami’s 2025 first-round pick, regardless of whether it’s a lottery pick, and if it tells Charlotte it can take Miami’s 2027 first-round pick, regardless of whether it’s a lottery pick.

In that one specific scenario, the Heat — after the June 27 draft — could trade future first-round picks in 2029 and 2031.

But there’s no indication, at this point, that the Heat wants to dump the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft for the purpose of freeing up a second well-into-the-future first-round pick for a trade this summer.

WOJ ON HEAT’S FUTURE

ESPN insider Adrian Wojnarowski is optimistic about the Heat’s chances to land an All Star this summer.

“Miami is always in great position,” he said, “especially if it’s [possibly trading for] players with not a lot left on their contract, one or two years, and they tell their team: ‘I want a trade to the Heat. And if you don’t send me to the Heat, I am going to become a free agent and go to another team. Don’t trade me to that team or that team.’

“Teams can still decide to send you where they want to send you. But it’s always an advantage for Miami. Players want to be part of that organization.

“I think Miami will be in position to use the assets they have to get another All-Star-level player that maybe connects more on the line with Bam Adebayo and his age.”

One player who would be in that position is Cleveland guard Donovan Mitchell, who is due $35 million next season but can opt out of his contract on July 1, 2025.

Several reports have said Mitchell is expected to ask for a trade in the months ahead. But it’s unknown if he would request a trade specifically to the Heat.

▪ TNT will keep Brian Anderson and Stan Van Gundy on the Heat-Celtics series on Wednesday, with Game 5 in Boston also airing on Bally Sports Sun with Eric Reid and John Crotty. Tipoff is shortly after 7:30. If the Heat somehow forces a Game 6, that would be on ESPN and Bally on Friday from Kaseya Center.