FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — La Nina is winding down and will end in a few months, but folks shouldn't expect spring showers in drought-stricken Texas, weather experts said Thursday.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center announced that La Nina, which contributed to the drought across the southwestern U.S., will dissipate between March and May. It brings less rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures, but its departure won't lead to immediate weather changes, said Victor Murphy, the climate service program manager for the National Weather Service's southern region, based in Fort Worth.
That's why forecasts show below-normal rainfall across the state this spring, usually the wettest months of the year in Texas. The severe drought that's plagued the state for more than a year also is expected to drag on and possibly worsen without significant precipitation, Murphy said.
"When La Nina comes to an end, it will wipe the slate clean, but we have to really watch the summer months," Murphy said Thursday.
This La Nina — one of the strongest on record — started in late summer 2010 and tapered off last spring, then re-emerged a bit weaker in the fall, Murphy said. It's the 11th multi-year La Nina since 1900, he said.
The average rainfall for Texas in 2011 was a mere 14.88 inches, making it the state's driest year on record. Bone-dry conditions across Texas led to wildfires that burned nearly 4 million acres, destroyed more than 3,000 homes and killed 10 people in the 2011 fire season. Many lakes dried up and some communities' water supplies ran dangerously low.
The state needs massive rainfall to end the drought. In fact, ending it would require three months of 200 to 500 percent of the normal precipitation in most of the state and between 175 and 200 percent of normal rainfall in East Texas, according to January data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But unexpected storms unrelated to La Nina in December and January have eased some parched areas. Since last week, the Dallas-Fort Worth region and a swath of North Texas stretching to the state's border with Oklahoma and Arkansas have been officially out of drought conditions for the first time since July.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday, only about 23 percent of the state remains in the most severe drought category and about 32 percent in the second worst category — swaths of west, southeast and central Texas. On Oct. 4, 88 percent of the state was in the most severe drought category and 9 percent was in the second-worst category.
"The rainfall the last two months is a real head-scratcher, but it's helped," Murphy said. "We've been seeing some improvement, but we're more apt to return to drier conditions."
Ron McQueen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lubbock, said he's cautiously optimistic about showers by late spring or early summer.
"There's a better chance of rain than last year, but there's no guarantee," McQueen said.
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