Hillary Clinton will probably survive the latest dust-up involving emails that made their way to Anthony Weiner’s computer. But the Democrats’ effort to retake Congress may not.
The odds of Clinton winning fell from about 91% before the latest FBI revelation on Oct. 28 to about 86% today, according to forecasting site Predictwise. That’s a big swing in a short period of time, but Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite. But the odds of a Democrat sweep of the House and Senate fell more decisively, with the odds of Democrat majorities in both chambers now extremely low.
The real focus is the House, which is solidly Republican and would only go to Dems in a resounding sweep for the party. If that happened, the Senate would almost certainly flip as well, giving Democrats control of both the executive and legislative branches. The odds of a Democratic takeover in the House peaked at about 25% in mid-October, after the notorious Access Hollywood videotape revealed Republican nominee Donald Trump making lewd remarks about women.
But the odds tapered off after that, and plunged to about 10% following news from FBI Director James Comey that the FBI was opening a new probe into various Clinton emails. “The House has bounced up and down, but the FBI investigation kind of put a hammer in it,” Predictwise founder David Rothschild tells Yahoo Finance in the video above.
State-by-state breakdowns show that Clinton’s odds declined following the latest FBI news in swing states where she and Trump are polling very close, such as Florida and New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, the FBI flap may actually swing the final vote from Clinton to Trump, and help embattled Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte keep her Senate seat. That’s a major swing to attribute to just one news event.
In swing states where Clinton seems to have a stronger lead, the FBI news seemed to matter less. “In states where Clinton was up already by 5 or 6 points, we didn’t see much movement there,” Rothschild explains. “What that led to was a weakening of her outward defenses. But she’s still up in the probabilities.”
Still, any news that’s liable to swing a Senate seat or two, and a few House seats, is a major event, and the FBI seems to have moved the needle more than attack ads, debate performances or most other campaign events during the last three months.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.
