Tornado terror: Storms in southern Michigan evoke memories of Gaylord twister; renew calls for readiness

May 9—GAYLORD — Vic Ouellette's mind races back to what he calls the scariest 10 seconds of his life when a tornado hits, as it did in southern Michigan Tuesday night.

He's a retired sheriff's deputy and is used to responding to disasters, but becoming a victim of one when an EF-3 tornado struck Gaylord in May 2022 was a "whole new wake-up call."

"I couldn't wrestle it, I couldn't shoot it, I couldn't arrest it, I couldn't fight it — there was nothing I could do," Ouellette said. "You had to ride it out. But, if you prepare for it, that makes it a little bit different — knowing that you can survive because you made a plan."

For Ouellette and his wife, the plan was to get to the basement, and they barely had time, he said. They were heading toward the room they figured to be the safest when the tornado lifted his childhood home off its foundation over their heads.

While his wife suffered some broken bones, he still marvels at how lucky he and she were to walk away.

Now, as people from Dowagiac to Portage to Colon are dealing with the aftermath of what witnesses described as tornadoes, Ouellette said he knows just what those people are going through.

"You know what they're feeling and you know what's going on and what they're thinking and, oh God, it's horrible," he said. "I wouldn't wish it on anybody."

Tornadoes in northern Michigan aren't rare, and an average of about two to three occur each year in the National Weather Service's 25-county forecast area around Gaylord: That's roughly every one within a triangle from Manistee to Chippewa to Arenac counties, plus Gladwin County.

But NWS records show many of those funnel clouds were weak, rating as EF-0 or EF-1 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with winds of 65 to 85 mph or 86 to 110 mph, respectively. And some years have passed with no tornadoes in that Gaylord forecast area.

Andy Sullivan, a meteorologist at the Gaylord NWS office, said two big factors are behind the rarity of powerful tornadoes like the one that hit Gaylord on May 20, 2022.

"Being surrounded by three big Great Lakes, that usually brings in cooler air for most of the year," he said.

That can change by summer's end as the lakes are warming up, but in spring and early summer when severe weather is more common, those colder waters hamper its formation, he said.

Another reason is that humid air from the Plains region to the Ohio River Valley can only get so far north, Sullivan said.

Being rare doesn't mean it's impossible, though. In fact, it's just the opposite.

"The chances are, we will see another one, whether it's this year or next year, five years, 10 years — there'll be another destructive tornado that hits northern Michigan," he said.

Transitioning from an El Niño-influenced winter can up the chances for severe weather, especially the supercell thunderstorms that can spawn tornadoes, said Tiffani Wilke, a Northwestern Michigan College professor of meteorology and Earth science.

"So I'm anticipating tornado season this year to just be intense through the entire summer and progressively moving further north," she said.

Wilke said wave patterns in the atmosphere are more common coming out of an El Niño winter. They can form deeper troughs in the atmosphere known as short-wave troughs — picture a long, curvy line of relatively low air pressure.

Those troughs, in turn, can intensify weather systems by letting in warm, moist air to the east and allowing frontal boundaries to form. Cold fronts can produce lift, and if surface winds are blowing in a different direction than winds higher in the atmosphere, that produces directional shear.

Shear causes rotation, a key ingredient for a supercell thunderstorm, Wilke said. It's typical to see a line of storms following a cold front as it sweeps west, called a squall line. If the line bows in the middle, a supercell can form at the northern end.

While tornadoes that likely hit southern Michigan weren't part of such a squall line, that's what moved across Michigan in May 2022, Wilke said.

Temperatures throughout the Lower Peninsula climbed into the 80s that day, according to the NWS.

Meteorologists at NWS' Gaylord station launched a weather balloon just before thunderstorms moved in back then. The data showed wind shear of 57 knots, whereas 35 knots or more boosts the formation of severe thunderstorms.

It was one of a rare combination of factors that fueled the weather that caused the calamity nearly two years ago, killing two and injuring 44.

"For our area, that's a pretty significant tornado to have that far north," Wilke said. "We up here typically don't get those more damaging types of storm systems."

Had anyone ever told Ouellette that Gaylord would one day be hit by an EF-3 twister, he would have called them crazy, he said.

Now that he's lived it, he's seen how important preparation can be.

He had several pointers, from understanding what your property insurance policies cover and don't, to having a cell phone handy, as landlines can be felled by storms, and keeping a stash of emergency supplies like water, food, toiletries and other essentials.

And Ouellette routinely checks weather forecasts.

Knowing where to go in a tornado and occasionally practicing through drills is important, too, Sullivan said.

Wilke said she's all too familiar with the terror factor of tornadoes, having completed her graduate degree in Norman, Okla. But, for all the fear they evoke, studies show even the massive tornadoes common in other states are very survivable — if people plan ahead.

"People get really scared and I strongly believe in respecting the tornado, respecting Mother Nature," she said, "but also knowing that, as long as you take the proper safety protocols, surviving a tornado is really high."