Trading Radar: A Week Full of Data, Earnings, and Ben Bernanke
Here's a look ahead at what's coming up next week in potentially market-moving news.
The US will release the first estimate of second quarter GDP on Wednesday morning, and economist expectations have been revised, getting progressively worse with the continual influx of new data from June. Currently, the consensus economist expectation is for annualized growth of 1.0% in the second quarter, though many Street estimates are below that figure. With the consumption, manufacturing, fixed investment, and inflation data we've received thus far, we can reasonably expect to see 0.4% to 0.6% annualized growth, with an outside chance that we'll see a quarterly contraction depending on where public spending clocks in.
July's non-farm payroll figure will be released on Friday. This month, economists are expecting to see growth, forecasting 179,000 new jobs to be added since June. National and regional manufacturing surveys thus far have all shown growth in employment for the month. Additionally, hours worked should increase as should manufacturing capacity utilization.
Personal spending and income data from June will also be released on Friday. In June, the payrolls report showed that average hourly earnings accelerated by 0.4% month-over-month, which should provide a tailwind to income. Additionally, tax receipts have picked up in July, which is a positive for both income and spending growth. However, retail sales ex auto and gas dropped by 0.1% in June, creating a head wind for consumption growth, which is also being challenged by higher taxes, particularly in households with less than $75,000 annual income.
Lastly, the FOMC will release its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, following the GDP and ADP payrolls report that morning. It is unlikely that the Fed will move to reduce asset purchases at the July meeting. The Fed may comment on second quarter growth and inflation trends, which they have thus far viewed as transitory. A $20-$25 billion cut in asset purchases has been priced into fixed income markets, so if the Fed indicates they are not on that path, Treasuries and other fixed income assets will likely rally.
MONDAY, July 29
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
10:00 Pending Home Sales Mom – June, prior 6.7%, est. -1.2%
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity – June, prior 6.5, est. 6.8
11:30 Fed purchase $2.75-3.5b in 2020-2023 sector
11:30 Fed to Sell $30b 3M, $25b 6M bills
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals
22:30 JPY Household Spending
Earnings
Eastman Chemical (EMN) is expected to report EPS of $1.64.
Herbalife (HLF) is expected to report EPS of $1.19.
Hertz (HTZ) is expected to report EPS of $0.46.
Loews (L) is expected to report EPS of $0.73.
Masco (MAS) is expected to report EPS of $0.19.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) is expected to report EPS of $0.27.
Simon Property Group (SPG) is expected to report EPS of $2.07.
TUESDAY, July 30
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller Home Prices Mom – May, prior 1.72%, est. 1.3%
09:00 S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price Index – May, prior 152.37
10:00 Consumer Confidence – July, prior 81.4, est. 79.9
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector
11:30 Fed to sell 4W bill
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence
09:00 EUR Euro Industrial Confidence
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence
12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index
23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
23:15 JPY Nomura Manufacturing Survey
Earnings
3D Systems (DDD) is expected to report EPS of $0.22.
Aetna (AET) is expected to report EPS of $1.39.
Alliance (ADS) is expected to report EPS of $2.18.
Aflac (AFL) is expected to report EPS of $1.52.
Amgen (AMGN) is expected to report EPS of $1.71.
Coach (COH) is expected to report EPS of $0.89.
Corning (GLW) is expected to report EPS of $0.31.
Cummins (CMI) is expected to report EPS of $1.97.
Jetblue (JBLU) is expected to report EPS of $0.14.
Merck (MR) is expected to report EPS of $0.82.
Pfizer (PFE) is expected to report EPS of 2.09.
WEDNESDAY, July 31
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
07:00 MBA Applications July 26, prior -1.2%
08:15 ADP Employment Change - July, prior 188k, est. 180k
08:30 Employment Cost Index - Q2, prior 0.3%, est. 0.5%
08:30 Gross Domestic Product -Q2, prior 1.8%, est. 1.2%
08:30 Personal Consumption – Q2, prior 2.6%, est. 1.5%
09:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager – July, prior 51.6, est. 54.5
10:30 Crude Inventories
14:00 Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision, prior 0.25%
15:00 Fed releases its August schedule for tentative outright Treasury purchases
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:30 AUD Prive Sector Credit
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption
07:00 CHF Swiss Leading Indicator
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
23:30 AUD AiG Performance Manufacturing Index
Earnings
DreamWorks (DWA) is expected to report EPS of $0.20.
Level 3 Communications (LVLT) is expected to report EPS of -$0.06.
Mastercard (MA) is expected to report EPS of $6.32.
Questar (STR) is expected to report EPS of $0.22.
SodaStream (SODA) is expected to report EPS of $0.57.
Yelp (YELP) is expected to report eps of -$0.03.
THURSDAY, August 1
US Economics (Time Zone:EDT)
07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Yoy – July, prior 4.8%
07:30 RBC Consumer Outlook Index – August, prior 50.7
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, prior 343k, est. 345k
08:58 Markit US PMI Final – July, est. 53.1
10:00 Construction Spending Mom – June, prior 0.5%, est. 0.6%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing – July, prior 50.9, est. 51.5
10:00 ISM Price Paid – July, prior 52.5, est. 53
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
17:50 Total Vehicle Sales – July, prior 15.89 million, est. 15.70 million
Global Economics (Time Zone:GMT)
01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
01:45 CHY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
07:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
11:00 GBP BOE Rate Decision
11:00 GBP Asset Purchase Target
Earnings
Activision (ATVI) is expected to report EPS of $0.04.
American International Group (AIG) is expected to report EPS of $0.85.
Beazer Homes (BZH) is expected to report EPS of -$0.35.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) is expected to report EPS of $9.83.
Kellogg (K) is expected to report EPS of $0.97.
Linkedin (LNKD) is expected to report EPS of $0.04.
OpenTable (OPEN) is expected to report EPS of $0.35.
Procter & Gamble (PG) is expected to report EPS of $0.77.
Time Warner Cable (TWC) is expected to report EPS of $1.66.
FRIDAY, August 2
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Personal Income, prior 0.50%, est. 0.4%
08:30 Change in Non-farm Payrolls – July, prior 195k, est. 83k
08:30 Personal Spending – July, prior 0.30%, est. 0.5%
08:30 PCE Deflator Mom – June, prior 0.1%, est. 0.3%
08:30 Change in Private Payroll – July, prior 202k, est. 195k
08:30 Person Consumption Expenditure Deflator - July, prior 1.0%, est. 0.4%
08:30 Unemployment Rate – July, prior 7.6%, est. 7.5%
08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Yoy – June, prior 1.1%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY – July, prior 2.2%, est. 2.2%
08:30 Underemployment Rat (U6) – July, prior 14.3%
09:45 ISM New York – July, prior 47
10:00 Factory Orders – July, prior 2.1%, est. 2.2%
Fed Speak
12:15 James Bullard Speaks on U.S Economy in Boston
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:30 AUD Producer Price Index
07:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Manager Index
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index
Earnings
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) is expected to report EPS of $2,170.50
Here's a look at Minyanville's top market stories from the past week:
Ben Bernanke Beliebers, US Demographics, and a Stock Market Correction
Why Housing Prices Suggest the Recovery Will Gain Strength
Apple Inc.'s Feud With Samsung Puts Future Innovation at Risk
The Technicals Say Correction, the Markets Say Incorrect
Looking for a Buyable Consumer Stock? Good Luck With That
Twitter: @MichaelSedacca
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