With one debate down and a month to go before the election, two University of Colorado professors are continuing to predict that Republican candidate Mitt Romney will become President Romney this year.
* According to the university, political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry, of CU-Denver, initially made their prediction for Romney on Aug. 22.
* This week, the duo updated their analysis using new economic data. Their latest prediction shows Romney with 330 of the 538 Electoral College votes. They expect Obama to receive 208 Electoral College votes.
* The model predicts that Romney will carry New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada, according to the university.
* Bickers and Berry developed an election forecast model that considers the Electoral College instead of popular vote. It's the only election model of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions, the university reported.
* The Bickers and Berry model contains state and national unemployment data. It also analyzes changes to per capita income.
* The state-by-state economic data is nothing new, the university reported, as it has been available since 1980. This data, when applied retroactively, identifies all presidential election winners and correctly estimates the outcome of Bush v. Gore in 2000, where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the presidency via the Electoral College.
* Bickers and Barry's original prediction model was published in the August issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, the university stated. This year's 13 published models showed five predictions for Obama, five for Romney and three that indicated that the 2012 race is a toss-up.
* According to Bickers and Berry, the model has an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. The timeframe of economic data used in the study that shows a nearly 50-50 split may "fall in an unexpected direction," the university reported.
- Politics & Government
- Electoral College