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    We're All Greeks Now

    Pat Buchanan's column is released twice a week.

    Departing for New Hampshire in November 2010, Sen. Judd Gregg, the fiscal conservative President Obama wanted in his Cabinet, blurted an inconvenient truth: "This nation is on a course where if we don't do something about it, get ... fiscal policy (under control), we're Greece."

    The remark was regarded as hyperbole. But Gregg had a point. For though Greece, measured by the size of her economy, is only 2 to 3 percent of the EU or the U.S. economy, she is a microcosm of the West.

    Consider the demography.

    According to the most recent revision of the U.N.'s "World Population Prospects," Greece in 2010 had 11.2 million people.

    More than 24 percent were 60 or above, more than 18 percent 65 or older. Three percent were 80 or above. And, every year, for every nine Greeks who are born, 10 Greeks die.

    Greece is slowly passing away.

    Fast forward to 2050.

    Greece's population will have fallen by 300,000 to 10.8 million. The median age will have risen by eight years to 49.5. Half the population will be 50 or older. More critically, the share of Greece's population 60 or older will be 37.4 percent, with 31.3 percent over 65. One in nine Greeks will be over 80.

    If Athens is breaking under the weight of early retirement and pensions for seniors today, her situation will be horrendous by mid-century.

    Where, in 2010, there were four Greeks under 60 for every Greek over 60, by 2050, there will only be 1.7 Greeks under 60 for every Greek over 60.

    Conclusion: The retirement age must rise, and pension benefits fall, or Greece collapses.

    What of the possibility of a new baby boom? Not likely, given that the fertility rate in Greece has been below replacement levels for three decades and is today only two-thirds of that needed to replace the present population.

    Indeed, by 2050, the fertility rate of Greek women will have been below zero population growth for 80 years. One wonders: How can the U.N. estimate that Greece's population will fall only 3 percent by then? Is the U.N. assuming mass immigration from the Muslim world?

    But what does Greece have to do with the rest of Europe, or with us?

    Only this. The median age of all of Europe is rising, and the demographic numbers for Greece look positively rosy alongside those of the east, where population declines in the tens of millions are projected for Russia and Ukraine. And outside Iceland and Albania, not one nation of Europe has a fertility rate sufficient to maintain its population. Those that are projected to grow, like Britain, have to be relying on Third World immigrants and their higher birth rate.

    But while this may maintain an existing population size, immigrants from the Maghreb, Middle East, Caribbean, Latin America and South Asia, on average, lack the language, technical skills and educational levels of native-born Europeans.

    The same is true in the U.S., where peoples of European descent are expected to drop to half the population by 2041. Hispanics will grow from 15 percent to near 30 percent of the U.S. population, and their absolute numbers from 50 million to 135 million by 2050.

    Yet, again, Hispanics and children of Hispanic immigrants have not, as of yet, reached close to parity in educational achievement with Americans of East Asian or European ancestry.

    People equate today's immigration with the immigration of 1890-1920. But another major difference is this: We erected a Great Society over 50 years that did not exist in 1920.

    In Washington in the 1950s, a city of 800,000, half black and half white, food stamps had not been invented. Families fed themselves. Today, in a District of Columbia of 600,000, one in five are on food stamps. Nationally, a program that did not exist in 1964 feeds one in seven Americans, 44 million people, at a cost of $77 billion a year. And that is but a small fraction of our new Great Society.

    We are entering a new "age of austerity," said British Prime Minister David Cameron in 2009.

    The halcyon days are over. Government payrolls, as is happening from California to New York to Washington, D.C., will have to be slashed. Pension and health care benefits, not only for seniors, will have to be reduced. Retirement ages will have to be raised. From food stamps to foreign aid, programs are going to be capped and cut.

    The left believes it can get the money from the wealthy. But the top 1 percent of Americans in income already carry 40 percent of the federal income tax load, while the bottom 50 percent of wage-earners ride free. This, too, will have to end.

    We are either going to man up and radically reduce government at all levels in the United States, or the bond markets are going to do it for us, as they are doing it today for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

    We're all Greeks now.

    To find out more about Patrick Buchanan, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

    COPYRIGHT 2011 CREATORS.COM

     

    22 comments

    • Thomas in Brazil  •  10 mths ago
      The fundamental difference is that the Italians, Irish, Swedes, Jews, Poles, etc that immigrated to America expected only to work hard and be permitted to benefit from their own labor. Most modern immigrants want to arrive in the Land of the Great Government Cornucopia of Benefits. The above mentioned immigrant groups expected, and for the most part got, nothing from the government, and their hard work and sacrifice made America great. How many of them blamed their problems on the rich and demanded that the government rob from the rich to give to them?
    • Analog_User  •  10 mths ago
      Defense outlays, or interest on previous defense apending, account for 52% of the US budget. Drop three wars, provide a reasonable defense, and bring troops home and nobody gets cut.
    • Ezequiel  •  10 mths ago
      "... immigrants from the Maghreb, Middle East, Caribbean, Latin America and South Asia, on average, lack the language, technical skills and educational levels of native-born Europeans."

      My previous post was offensive to some white folks, but the truth is that Pat's comment above is a veiled racist statement. Pat claims that the white tide, which is western civilization, is receding. No question about that. Granted, white man, creator and sustainer of western civilization is no longer sustaining growth, but seems to be on the decline. The effect of this is that coloured people are becoming more and more numerous. Will this lead to the end of Western Civilization? Nahh... western civilization will only suffer minor changes and adjustments, just like it has suffered minor changes and adjustments in South America.
      • Eric1 10 mths ago
        Of course, you haven't factored in the fact that MOST of these non-white people have COME to the West in order to become Western themselves. And as we KNOW from our OWN immigrant experience, it TAKES a generation or two, or even THREE before these folks becaomse assimilated.
      • Crono141 10 mths ago
        Depends on if they are actually becoming western or not. Muslim immigrants into Europe still hold fastly to the culture of their native land, usually a distinctly non-western (or even anti-western) culture steeped in superstition and tribalism. They aren't in Europe to become western, but to make Europe middle eastern.

        Likewise with illegal immigrants in the SW united states. Most, if not all, still declare allegiance to Mexico, and view southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico as Mexican lands that were wrongly taken, and they are there to take it back.

        Your base premise is false, Eric1. Not all immigrants to western countries are immigrating to become western. many, if not most, are there to spread their own backwards culture and spread their 3rd world failure to those who long ago threw off such culture and became successful.
      • Mike68 10 mths ago
        Ezequiel, I don't agree that it is a racist statement. It is however a fact that will have to be addressed. Fortunately language, technical skills, and education are all things that can be acquired easily in the US.
    • Thomas in Brazil  •  10 mths ago
      Furthermore, I stand in awe of the incredible bias against Buchanan that insists in equating any uncomfortable fact he presents with racism. It reminds one of the Inquisition in that any thing he says that departs from "accepted truth" is decried as "heresy" and the demands for "burning" accumulate. Only the Fanatics are afraid of having their positions questioned.
    • Yard Dog Mazurka  •  10 mths ago
      The right believes it can get money from the poor. But the bottom 50 percent of wage-earners already carry a disproportionate burden of regressive taxation through sales taxes, landlord
      pass-throughs of property taxes, user fees, oil subsidies and giveaways to the health insurance industry while the well-lawyered, loophole-conversant top 1 percent of Americans in income ride free. This, too, will have to end.
      • Dom 10 mths ago
        I'm not sure I accept your suggestion that sales taxes are "regressive" in the same sense that income tax is progressive. The rich and poor alike pay the same sales tax rate -- in order for sales tax to be "regressive", the poor would have to pay a higher rate (as the rich do for income tax). Sales tax is, by definition, a "flat" tax. The rich, of course, pay higher total sales taxes because they consume more, and more expensive items.

        As to the fairness of a "flat" sales tax, one might also argue that the bottom 50% of wage-earners also receive a disporportonate share of government benefits in the form of government-provided social programs, such as food stamps, rent subsidies, etc.

        Finally, with respect to your assertion that the top 1% of Americans are on an "income-free ride" (presumably you meant to say "tax-free" ride), how do you reconcile this with the oft-cited figure that the top 1% of earners pay 40% of the taxes?
      • Yard Dog Mazurka 10 mths ago
        @Dom--

        The regressivity of a consumption tax doesn't reflect its rate, nor is it absolutely proportionate to levels of consumption. It's regressive when it takes a disproportionate bite out of lower incomes. You're essentially making an everyone-sleeps-under-the-same-bridge argument there.

        As to the fairness of your second point, one might make such an argument indeed, and one will definitely be wrong. The reality in this economy is that its bottom reaches have a disproportionate share of subsistence benefits because they have a disproportionate need for them and, post neoconservative wealth-siphoning and budget-cutting, a need disproportionately unfulfilled.

        Finally, re "income-free ride": Wasn't my assertion. Check the sentence structure, which parallels Buchanan's. Subject = "The top 1 percent of Americans in income." Predicate = "ride free." And how does that reconcile with your "oft-cited" 40% figure? You don't, because the context is irrelevant when it's 40% of a revenue that's been slashed 60% from its optimum levels during the Eisenhower through Nixon administrations. Returning the rates to Clinton levels would be an equitable good start.
      • Dom 10 mths ago
        Relative to total income, ANY expenditure, whether sales tax or purchase price, is going to be proportionately higher in lower income people. What is your solution – to charge more for, say, a loaf of bread for wealthier buyers than poorer ones?

        As to the second issue, the real question is, what is the extent to which the wealthy should be required to subsidize the poor – or the upper middle class to subsidize the lower middle class? Is not taxation to pay for benefits not realized by the payer simply forced redistribution of wealth? The logical end game here is pure socialism in which all wealth is controlled by the state and redistributed uniformly – regardless of individual productivity or value to the economy. It simply doesn’t work because it removes all incentive to productivity. I am not suggesting that the appropriate extent of wealth redistribution is zero, I am merely asking where YOU would draw the line (apparently at the levels extant in the Clinton administration. I am not sure how different they are now).

        Finally, I did misread your last sentence. However, now that I have re-read it and gleaned your meaning, I still find myself disagreeing. I myself am in that top 1% of income earners that you apparently decry. My annual income is about $340K. My tax burden is about $120K, local, state and fed – not counting sales and other property taxes. Somehow, I don’t view myself as “riding free.” Nor do I think I necessarily am receiving much value for my $120K – it seems to me to be a very expensive “ride” for the amount I receive. Now, I realize that many wealthy individuals receive much of their income from capital gains which are taxed at a lower rate than ordinary income. The ostensible rationale is to encourage “investment” which is considered good for the general prosperity – including the less well off. That may be a debatable premise, but that is not at issue in your argument.
    • Ezequiel  •  10 mths ago
      The world white population is dwindling... but the way you say it, Pat, is like if you're placing the blame on the coloured people. Things are not happening by design. You can curtail immigration all you want, but still, the white man is going extinct. Not the white man's fault, not the coloured man's fault. It's nature at work. There is nothing you can do about that, short of genocide and/or making white babies in baby factories.

      Face it, Pat... humanity is not disappearing -- man, as an abstract, non-coloured entity is not going extinct, it's just going browner and getting darker... and by your white supremacist parameters, humanity is also becoming somewhat less intelligent.
      • JAMES 10 mths ago
        This has to be the dumbest, most racial post that I've ever read!
      • John 10 mths ago
        Ezequeil with the exception of Japan, South Korea, and China what nation with nonwhites in charge and/or where whites are a minority has ever prospered with a high living standard.
      • Sbpdl Sbpdl 10 mths ago
        It doesn't help the white man's fertility rate that he is burdened and brow-beaten into giving away the civilization he built to the coloreds and has been brainwashed to believe that he and his kind are inherently evil and have a permanent white guilt. Perhaps if we weren't guilted into taking care of all the children born from minority profligacy, we could afford more of our own.
    • Dom  •  10 mths ago
      The problem with all social programs is that they create their own constituency and dependents. I think we first need to admit that these programs were not inherently “evil” and were put in place in a noble effort to do good and spread prosperity. But their unintended consequences, coupled with shifting demographics, have made them untenable. The second thing to admit is that there are many millions of people who now truly are dependent on these programs. To cut them off instantly would be effectively lethal – both to them, and to our society. We need to create structural changes that phase in gradually. So for example we could add 20% to the remaining time to retirement and eligibility for pensions and Medicaid for everyone. For an older person close to retirement age, this would be matter of mere weeks or months. For a younger person, it would add several years – giving time to plan ahead. Across the board we need to thinking like this and adopting policies that gradually force people to assume more responsibility for their own well-being.

      Such policies will, at times, be painful – and there will be some, perhaps many, who fall through the cracks for whatever reason (some their own fault, some not). The homeless, the sick, the elderly, the indigent will all suffer, and perhaps die as we shrink the safety net. We must also come to grips with that – for it WILL happen as we return to the 19th century world view espoused by Mr. Buchanan.
      • h2o4ever 10 mths ago
        @Dom: You are the winner for the most reasonable and thought out post on here so far. I don't have a problem providing a safety net for those who have fallen, but that net has become a hammock over the last couple of decades.

        To qualify for welfare in Brazil, parents are required to send their children to public school daily and ensure they get good grades. Their argument is that a more educated populace will require less govt. dependence. And while I think something like that would work wonderfully in the US, I wonder how hard of a brick wall it would hit when the anti-public school/pro-voucher and home school wing of the GOP started whining that they want a share of the pie.

        Another way to get people off the system would be a manditory requirement for adults on welfare to attend govt.-subsidized job training or technical schools that are privately run. I would rather subsidize schools than individuals and it would be cheaper in the long run to do so.
      • Mike68 10 mths ago
        Caldude - your point is well taken, but we chose to homeschool our children to give them a better education. I don't want any government assistance, and I have never met a home schooler that was on public assistance either. That may not turn out to be such an issue.

        In addition, it may be a good idea for adults on welfare to pass a drug screen as well.
    • shadowmack  •  10 mths ago
      While I've been a fan of Pat since before he ran for president, I've got to point out that Hispanics are just as European as the Irish. Hispanics are also just as likely to be white as any other shade (not that this should matter); the term refers to people whose ancestors came from Spain (the Roman name for the Iberian peninsula being Hispania).
      • Crono141 10 mths ago
        While academically correct, the truth of the matter is people from spain make up a tiny fraction of hispanic immigrants. Most hispanic immigrants come from south america, and surely you don't believe they are all European. They're descendents from Mayan's, Aztecs, and a whole host of tribes of natives from before Spain arrived in the new world.

        Not that there is anything wrong with that. Just correcting your perception of the hispanic populations.
      • JoeH 10 mths ago
        I agree with you both -- obviously the average Mexican is of primarily Native American descent -- but the dominant culture is European.
      • Papabear 10 mths ago
        Democracy in truth is the management of the fools. While every voter try to believe he/she is constituent of the person he/she voted the truth is the he/she is one of the fools being managed. Don't belive that? Think harder why "representative democracy" instead of "direct democracy"! The super-riches are the only constituents of the "elected officials" regardless who or what race or gender or age they are. The super-riches provide the resources to manage the fools so that their puppies get "elected" and implement policies for them to become richer. When wealth is mainly coming from robbing other countries, some of that also trickle down to the fools. When the fools find the differences between them and the super-riches become bigger and bigger, they disgruntle. When the portion of wealth coming from other countries become smaller and smaller, the trickle-down effect disappears, the fools revolt and new set of puppies get elected to manage them.
    • bil  •  10 mths ago
      We only need to look back in time to 2006 to find a level of spending that todays receipts would cover. We, the people have received no benefit from the extra spending since then. There is no stomach in washington to cut even that much. We could cut more.
    • Papabear  •  10 mths ago
      It is easy to say "raise the retirement age" but to provide jobs for people to earn a living is entirely outside mouthpieces' league.
    • James  •  10 mths ago
      There are two parts of our budget that are not even discussed when speaking about cuts, the military budget which rose 17 percent ,and foreign cash payments to Israel and other leaches.Better to cut Granny, eh?
    • Mike68  •  10 mths ago
      "We are either going to man up and radically reduce government at all levels in the United States, or the bond markets are going to do it for us, as they are doing it today for Greece, Ireland and Portugal".

      That about sums it up.
    • Kruger  •  10 mths ago
      With the re-election of Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank and Harry Reed, one must conclude that there's not much hope for the future of America.
    • maroon  •  10 mths ago
      Pat's not so secret agenda is to raise the birthrate. If you've read any of his other stuff you know what I mean.
    • Independence76  •  10 mths ago
      Another topic that deserves consideration is reform of the tax system. If you ever looked, you would find the Tax Code fills many volumes. Ask yourself why.
    • Larry Dickson  •  10 mths ago
      People are penalized so heavily for having children that it's amazing our birth rate is as high as it is. Corporations and government together strangle families.It's a culture of selfishness, and if it doesn't change, our main prayer should be for the collapse to be swift.
    • daniel Cazalis  •  10 mths ago
      Of course not we are the bond market. US cannot default 1) the constitution does not permit, 2) The banks us the world ARE the debt of the world 3) some can default all cannot default who is going to pay when all defaults? China has just lent 4B to Venezuela with 140% gdp debt.
    • daniel Cazalis  •  10 mths ago
      If you take out Mexicans-borders hispanic educational achievement is better than Americans of East Asian or European, Cubans, Venezuelian,Colombians, Argentinians and Brazilians are well above the media, easy to explain visa-overstay inmigrants are better than land sneakers. Obviously....
    • Guy  •  10 mths ago
      Pat can't seem to write more than 3 columns without bemoaning the declining white birthrate. Yet he and his wife have no children. Ironic.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  10 mths ago
      So you are saying we should buy puts on the SP500 to profit from this.
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