ANALYSIS | It wasn't so long ago that Texas governor Rick Perry's staffers were fielding questions in Austin and telling everyone that the charismatic politician wasn't even considering a run for the Oval Office. But that was at the end of May and early June. Perry became a presidential candidate on August 13, and the general low-level support that had previously been shown toward a crowded field of Republican candidates -- all seemed bunched together under the 20 percent mark without a definite leader -- quickly morphed into a 12-point lead for the Texan.
According to the most recent Gallup poll, Gov. Perry leads all contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination with 29 percent support from Republican and Republican-leaning independents. But more impressively, he has opened up a lead over former national poll frontrunner Mitt Romney by 12 percentage points. Third place is held by fellow Texan, Congressman Ron Paul, who, following a tremendous amount of coverage of the fact that he was not being covered by the media (and in some cases intentionally), moved up in the poll to pull in 13 percent. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann scored only 10 percent support for a fourth place slot despite her recent victory at the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, not to mention enjoying second-place status to Romney in several recent national polls.
But what changed the dynamic of the grouping and their order of preference? Apparently, it was Gov. Perry's commitment to actually run, as opposed to the rumblings and the rumors that he was courting financial supporters and merely considering the possibility of a run for office. There is evidence that poll numbers reflect that to be the case.
In July, when speculation of a possible candidacy was at its highest, support for Perry in a national Gallup Poll indicated that he had 18 percent support as opposed to Romney, a declared candidate, who had 23 percent support. Romney lost six percent of GOP support in one month. Bachmann, who shares an electorate base with Perry, lost three points.
Rick Perry jumped 11 points in the poll.
At the same time, it should be pointed out that preference for particular candidates shifted, while the overall percentage showing preference remained nearly the same. This was reflected in the fact that the number of undecided voters remained relatively static. In July, 18 percent of respondents noted they had "No Preference." By August, those showing indecision or no preference was 17 percent. This would indicate that Perry's commitment to run altered Republican respondent preference for those who had a preferential candidate, a conclusion that can be bolstered by the uptick in support for MItt Romney when he announced his candidacy in early June. Polls had previously shown Romney in a neck-and-neck battle with undeclared candidate Sarah Palin (with numbers relatively unchanged from the dropping out of the race in mid-May of poll frontrunners Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee) until he declared his candidacy on June 2. Within days, as a list of polls at Real Clear Politics shows, Romney jumped to a sizeable lead of Palin.
So does this mean that Rick Perry should worry about the late entrance into the race of other candidates? Possibly. Among them is the aforementioned Palin, whose candidacy, though uncertain at present, brings with it national name recognition and a ready-made financial support system (SarahPAC). Other names being bandied about by the press are former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former New York governor George Pataki, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie.
The Gallup Poll is the third major national poll to show Perry with a double digit lead in the GOP nomination race. Rasmussen Reports polled Perry with an 11-point lead over Romney, while Public Policy Polling showed Perry leading Romney by 10 points.
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