ANALYSIS | Former Massachusetts governor and current Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has made some gains in recent national polling, according to the listing at Real Clear Politics, pulling to within four percentage points of frontrunner Rick Perry in at least a couple surveys, including Rasmussen Reports' latest. In an interview with USA Today, Romney told the national newspaper that his plan going forward was to show the contrasts between himself and Perry, to draw starker lines between himself and the seemingly more conservative Perry and hope it works to persuade Republicans to vote for him in the upcoming caucuses and primaries. He also said he would like to see Sarah Palin enter the Republican race. He says she will make the race "more exciting" and that is most likely true. But is that the only reason Romney wants Palin, who recently alluded to Perry as a crony capitalist, in the hunt for the Republican presidential nomination?
"I don't think there's any way of predicting that," Romney told USA Today when asked if the former Alaska governor might jump into the 2012 presidential race. "I think it would be a good thing if she did. She would make the race that much more exciting, bring more people to watch the debates, and I hope she gets in."
And Romney would undoubtedly be correct in that assessment. Palin is a galvanizing force within the Republican Party, commands a large, strong, and dedicated fan and support base, and has a history of bringing out large crowds wherever she goes. The mutual attraction between the former Alaska governor and the media would also intensify scrutiny of the debates and its participants. Still, "exciting" is most likely is a solitary sentiment on Romney's part.
Would Palin's inclusion in the 2012 GOP nomination race be the "good thing" Romney predicts? For Romney, it would -- therefore, it would be "exciting." But for candidates like Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, Rep. Michele Bachmann, and Texas governor Rick Perry she would draw from their bases, those individuals who support them but only because Palin isn't in the race. For Bachmann and Paul, the losses could be devastating, but potentially more so for Bachmann due to her political positions being closely akin to those of Palin. Perry could lose several percentage points of support in the polls as well.
Polling indicates that when Palin is involved in the race (as most polls include the as yet undecided governor in their polling), Perry's numbers fall, simply because both candidates attract quite a few of the same types of conservative followers. When added to Perry's seeming inability to do well in debates and his penchant for courting controversial subjects, Palin's entrance could truly dig into Perry's lead, perhaps even eliminate it altogether. With Romney tracking within striking distance of regaining the lead in the polls, those few extra percentage points could help elevate him back where he was before Perry entered the race.
And if Palin gets into the race, every vote she would pull from the Perry total would not only help her own campaign, of course, but benefit Romney during the caucus and primary season (whose supporters tend to be more moderate Republicans), where each and every delegate counts toward the nominating majority vote needed to win.
So it isn't just for the excitement, the larger crowds, the added publicity, and that it would be an overall "good thing" that prompted Romney to say what he did about Sarah Palin. Her entering the race is especially "exciting" for Mitt Romney because the former governor sees it as a way to divide and conquer the Republican field and walk away in August 2012 as his party's nominee for president.
It is simply an added bonus that everything Romney said about the Sarah Palin entering the 2012 Republican nomination race was true.
Everything then hinges on whether or not Palin runs for president. She has indicated that she will announce by the end of September.
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