Why this year’s candidates aren’t talking about the economy
Voters this year care about jobs, pay, taxes and the economy. Candidates are talking about abortion, birth control, immigration and same-sex marriage. Somebody seems to be missing the point.
The challenge in midterm elections, of course, if just getting people to show up to vote, so Congressional candidates in battleground states such as Georgia, Kansas, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Colorado are making an emotional appeal on social issues most likely to get voters fired up.
“Social issues are a key determiner of party identification,” says Geoffrey Skelley of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a political forecasting site. “Among the bases of the two parties, those kinds of issues can be fundamental.”
In Colorado, for instance, half of the ads run by Democratic Sen. Mark Udall argue that his reelection challenger, Republican Cory Gardner, wants to limit some forms of birth control. In Iowa, the battle for a Senate seat between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley has shifted from a debate over health care and the economy to a smackdown over abortion rights.
Economic issues remain a backdrop in many races for the House and Senate, especially with Republicans in general running against the record and the economic policies of President Obama. But they’ve faded for three basic reasons:
The economy is getting consistently better. Employers have created 225,000 new jobs per month, on average, so far this year, which is a healthy pace. The stock market has hit new highs. The federal budget deficit is at the lowest level since 2008. Gas prices are set to fall below $3 per gallon. Consumer confidence is at a seven-year high. Republicans have bashed Obama’s handling of the economy almost since the day he took office, but their case is getting considerably weaker and voters are less likely to respond to scaremongering on economic issues.
The economy still isn’t strong enough, however, for Democrats to claim they’ve brought back prosperity. The biggest shortfall is incomes, which are still down sharply from prerecession levels. A lot of people who lost jobs during the last several years found new ones that pay less. Income inequality has worsened and there’s no sign of a turnaround. So while Republicans may sound alarmist by warning of economic disaster, Democrats would seem elitist and out of touch if they claimed everything was fine.
Obamacare has lost its punch as a political issue. The president’s signature health-reform law still riles up small-government conservatives who see it as massive federal overreach. But many critics predicted economic disasters—such as widespread job losses, a nation of part-timers and even the onset of stifling socialism—that haven’t occurred since the law went into effect a year ago. There are certainly anecdotal examples of employers canceling healthcare coverage and individuals coping with sharp rate hikes. And troublesome unintended consequences could materialize over time. But Obamacare hasn’t become a burden in most ordinary people’s lives. A recent poll by Kaiser even found that those most passionately opposed to Obamacare—conservative Republicans—are now more likely to say several other issues are more important.
Economic issues are too complicated for sound bites. Most voters want a stronger economy with more opportunity and prosperity. But there are many views about how to accomplish that, and they don’t all fall neatly into a Republican or Democratic platform. Social issues are usually more binary and often based on personal biases, which makes them an easy way for candidates to differentiate themselves from the opponent.
Candidates are usually for or against things such as same-sex marriage, abortion rights and over-the-counter contraception. An economic program, by contrast, typically includes numerous components involving arcane and yawn-inducing matters such as tax policy, foreign trade and infrastructure investment that aren’t easily summarized in a debate or campaign ad. “The economy is kind of a hard thing to nail down,” says Skelley. “In a globalized world, it’s extremely complicated.” And if voters want one thing overall, it’s for candidates to keep it simple, stupid.
Rick Newman’s latest book is Rebounders: How Winners Pivot From Setback To Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.
