All eyes, politically speaking, have turned toward Wisconsin as the state holds elections on recall challenges of six Republicans and two Democratic senators. The first elections, held today, 9, will determine whether the challenged Republicans will retain their seats. On Aug. 16, the same will occur for two Democratic senators. The outcome is important not only to the state, which could see a shake-up in the power structure of the state's Senate, but also to the nation as well, giving insight into the tea party movement and its future role in politics as well as the possible influence of political advertising.
"There's no doubt in my mind: These recalls will have a ripple effect across the entire nation," Jeffrey Weigand, spokesman for Sen. Luther Olsen, R-Ripon, told the Christian Science Monitor .
The recalls are the result of legislation passed earlier in the year by a Republican legislature that would end most of the traditional roles played by collective bargaining on behalf of state workers. The 14 Democratic senators, rather than be forced to offer a futile and losing vote in the offered budget bill, left the state, denying Republicans the quorum needed in which to legally hold a session of the state Senate.
After weeks of protests and political posturing on both sides, especially from newly elected Gov. Scott Walker, the AWOL senators returned. Angered at the dismantling of the unions' ability to collectively bargain, efforts were initiated to have Republican legislators recalled from office. Retaliatory efforts by conservatives against the Democratic senators were also launched.
At present, the Wisconsin legislature holds a 19-14 Republican majority in the Senate. The elections could very well see a shift in the balance of power in the Senate, which would also see a balance of power in the state legislature, giving Democrats the ability to stop legislation initiated by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and/or the governor's office. However, rectifying the collective bargaining legislation that would be the apparent mandate for Democrats to be elected would be problematic for the same reason.
On a national level, the inability of the Republicans to maintain their seats in the Wisconsin legislature would lead to new political strategizing, as it could point to the weakening of the tea party movement. Along with national polls showing growing disfavor with the hard-line anti-tax grass roots contingent, a defeat for all or most of the Republicans could signal the limits of their ability to influence.
Results could also show whether or not collective bargaining and union issues might play a greater role in political decisions in the near future as Republican legislatures around the U.S. have voted to diminish the power of unions, especially on a state employee level.
At the same time, a reported $31 million was infused into the Wisconsin political arena for the recall elections. If there is a political shift, it will undoubtedly foster the belief, even if untrue, that pouring money into a challenge will result in victory. Regardless of which side wins (or wins the most seats), the belief that not enough money was spent and cost a victory will most likely be rationalized as the reason by the defeated.
Results of the hotly contested senate seats -- six of them -- will be known, for the most part, tonight or Wednesday morning. Then the Monday morning quarterbacking and analyzing will begin in earnest, no matter who wins or loses. And strategists all across the country will begin deciding on where and when the next battle will take place. Will it be Ohio? Indiana? Idaho? Or will political organizations simply wait and make their political plays during the 2012 general elections?
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