COMMENTARY | In "Monty Python and the Holy Grail," King Arthur confronts "the Black Knight," who refuses to yield. Even after King Arthur severs both of his adversary's arms and legs (which are dismissed as mere "flesh wounds"), the Black Knight remains defiant. In the end, he's a mere stump of a figure, who announces to King Arthur, "OK, we'll call it a draw."
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad resembles that humorous character. Even as he loses his economy, public support, and what could be his military and resources, he remains stubborn about keeping something he can never use: a nuclear weapon.
In an article by UPI, Iran's oil minister bragged that sanctions would be ineffective, and his country would benefit from them. That's funny because at the same time, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced the sanctions and threatened to retaliate (shortly after repeating the lie that the sanctions would help his country), according to Parisa Hafezi from Reuters. Usually, people don't "retaliate" if another's actions are beneficial.
The Hoover Institution is pretty dismissive of sanctions, saying they "don't work." That's because not everyone slaps sanctions on the target and some country makes up the difference. That's why sanctions on Italy by the League of Nations failed (not everyone was in the League of Nations) and why sanctions on South Africa took so long to work (the U.S. bailed it out).
Iran might think everyone will not participate in the sanctions, and someone like China will come to its rescue. The U.S. tightened sanctions, and the European Union joined in. Saudi Arabia and others promised to make up the difference for the world market. And China looks out for China; it won't stick its neck out for a country engaged in a reckless nuclear policy that could destabilize the Middle East.
China was the second largest oil consumer of Iran's oil, but since January, it has cut those purchases, opting for Saudi, Russian, and African petrol instead, according to Judy Hua and Alex Lawler with Reuters. Some suspect the Chinese told Iran it might purchase some of their crude, for a drastic discount (the price of doing business with an international pariah). So even if China breaks ranks, Iran still won't be benefiting much.
Meanwhile, just as Iranian leaders dismiss sanctions, its buyers can't afford to purchase simple food staples on the international market, defaulting on such payments, according to the Chicago Tribune. The country is sliding down toward North Korea status, ruining its economy for a nuclear weapon that can't be used for fear of retaliation. Iran may really want its nuke, but like the Black Knight from the Holy Grail movie, it will cost "an arm and a leg."
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