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    Wisconsin Senate: The race at a glance

    By The Week's Editorial Staff | The Week – Thu, Oct 25, 2012

    The race to replace retiring Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) isn't just one of the closest in the country, it's also one of the most interesting

    After Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) was swept out and Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) swept in during the 2010 Tea Party midterms, Republicans felt pretty good about their chances to flip another Senate seat when four-term Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) announced his retirement. Their odds got even better when they recruited longtime governor-turned-Bush administration official Tommy Thompson and he won the GOP nomination. Democrats chose liberal Rep. Tammy Baldwin, and as expected, Thompson led in the polls... until mid-September. Then, boosted by the Democratic National Convention and lopsided TV advertising, Baldwin opened up a sizable lead. Now, with both campaigns and their allies pouring money into the race, it's a dead heat.

    THE CANDIDATES

    SEE MORE: Virginia Senate: The race at a glance

    Tommy Thompson (R)
    Former four-term governor and U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary
    Age: 70

    Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D)
    Seven-term U.S. congresswoman
    Age: 50

    SEE MORE: Maine Senate: The race at a glance

    KEY ISSUES
    Thompson has been calling Baldwin too liberal for Wisconsin and Baldwin has accused Thompson of running through politics' revolving door from HHS secretary to high-paid Washington lobbyist. In terms of specific issues, Democrats have hit Thompson for telling a Tea Party group in June he'll "come up with programs to do away with Medicaid and Medicare" (he says he wants to "save" the programs, not end them), while Republicans attack Baldwin for being to the left of President Obama on health care by supporting a Medicare-for-all option for ObamaCare. With two weeks left in the race, Thompson unleashed a "brutal" ad attacking Baldwin for voting against a 2006 bill commemorating the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Baldwin retaliated with her own ad accusing then-HHS Secretary Thompson of neglecting the health needs of firemen, cops, and others who responded to the 9/11 attacks in New York City, then getting an $11 million HHS contract to care for those same first responders after he left office. (The details on both ads are here.) There's one issue that, perhaps surprisingly, hasn't been part of the race: Baldwin's sexual orientation, says David Weigel at Slate. "Scott Walker's state may elect the first openly gay senator in American history, and it's a total nonissue."

    REAL CLEAR POLITICS POLL AVERAGE
    Thompson: 46 percent
    Baldwin: 46.8 percent
    (See the full data here.)

    SEE MORE: Pennsylvania Senate: The race at a glance

    Three election forecasters — Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato — rate the race a toss-up, while New York Times politics number-cruncher Nate Silver scores it "likely Democratic." Given her liberal voting record, Baldwin "is expected to underperform Obama in Wisconsin," says Huffington Post Pollster. That "would make the math very difficult for her if Mitt Romney carries or comes close to winning the state."

    CASH ON HAND (as of Sept. 30):
    Thompson: $2 million on hand; $5.7 million total
    Baldwin: $3.5 on hand; $11.2 million total

    SEE MORE: New York Senate debate: The sexist Fifty Shades of Grey question

    With an additional $28 million (and counting) pouring into the race from outside groups, the Thompson-Baldwin race is second only to Virginia in third-party spending, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

    DUELING ADS:

    SEE MORE: Anatomy of a campaign ad: 'The Romney-Mourdock ticket'

    Tommy Thompson: "Dangerous Path"

     

    SEE MORE: Rainn Wilson's pitch to make Voting Day a national holiday

    Tammy Baldwin: "Boss"

     

    SEE MORE: Indiana Senate: The race at a glance

    More races at a glance:

    Massachusetts Senate: Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren
    Nebraska Senate: Deb Fischer vs. Bob Kerrey
    North Dakota Senate: Rick Berg vs. Heidi Heitkamp
    Connecticut Senate: Linda McMahon vs. Chris Murphy
    Montana Senate: Jon Tester vs. Denny Rehberg
    Virginia Senate: George Allen vs. Tim Kaine
    Arizona Senate: Jeff Flake vs. Richard Carmona
    Maine Senate: Angus King vs. Charlie Summers vs. Cynthia Dill
    Pennsylvania Senate: Bob Casey vs. Tom Smith
    Missouri Senate: Claire McCaskill vs. Todd Akin
    Indiana Senate: Richard Mourdock vs. Joe Donnelly

    SEE MORE: 5 controversial ballot initiatives from around the nation

    Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.

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