Here’s how long it will take for Merced’s Bear Creek, Planada floodwaters to recede

Merced’s Bear Creek, which sent residents scrambling to find sandbags and to evacuate their homes, rose with surprising speed as Monday’s “atmospheric river” storm drenched Merced County.

But the floodwaters from the creek are expected to recede below flood stage by early Wednesday morning, weather forecasters reported.

In the unincorporated community of Planada, east of Merced, however, there are no estimates of when the water overflowing from Miles Creek may start to ease its grip on the town.

Bear Creek, which bisects Merced flowing east to west, had been peacefully running at a depth below 7 feet early Sunday morning. By Sunday night, it had risen to above 11 feet, according to the National Weather Service. When heavy rain began falling across Merced County on Monday, the creek’s rise became even more relentless.

At 3 p.m. Monday, the creek was at 10 feet but it climbed to more than 20 feet before 6 p.m., creeping ever closer to its flood stage of 23 feet – the point where water would breach the banks at 7:15 p.m.

But the water didn’t stop there. In the wee hours of Tuesday, shortly before 2 a.m., the creek crested at almost 26.2 feet, more than 3 feet above flood stage. The crest was about 1.5 feet higher than the previous flood of record for the creek of 24.7 feet in April 2006.

More rain fell in Merced on Tuesday, but the water was slowly – very slowly – starting to recede by midday Tuesday. On Tuesday afternoon, the National Weather Service extended its flood warning for Bear Creek through late Wednesday morning.

“Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding,” the NWS flood warning stated. “Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.”

Forecasters expect the river to drop below 24 feet on Tuesday afternoon but creep higher again Tuesday night before receding again to below its flood stage by 6 a.m. Wednesday.

More rain on Friday has the potential to push Bear Creek higher once again.

Miles Creek flooding at Planada

Miles Creek, which originates in Mariposa County, flows west through Merced County, past Planada, before terminating downstream from Highway 99 at its junction with Owens Creek near Roduner Dam.

The severe flooding in Planada is the result of Miles Creek breaching its banks near the community, said Mike North, a spokesperson for Merced County. The flooding prompted the Merced County Sheriff’s Office to issue an evacuation order for the entire community of Planada.

Mike Jensen, a spokesperson for the Merced Irrigation District, said Miles Creek has been prone to flooding for years as it flows out of the Sierra foothills across the Valley floor.

“We’re looking at this unprecedented series of storms, and we have ground that’s already saturated,” Jensen said. He added that the creek not only spilled over its banks into Planada but also overflowed into one of the irrigation district’s canals, helping to funnel some of the water away. “There’s just too much water,” he said.

More rain on Tuesday night and showers Wednesday morning could still add to the problems along Miles Creek, said North, the Merced County spokesperson.

“There’s no estimate at this time as to when floodwaters may recede,” North said Tuesday afternoon. “Additional rainfall moving inland will be a key factor.”

“There is a possibility floodwaters in the Planada area could even rise slightly with the additional precipitation and runoff from the hills.”

A 2012 analysis of flood infrastructure, hazards and deficiencies in Merced County estimated that Miles Creek had a channel capacity to carry about 1,000 cubic feet per second. At that time, the estimated peak 100-year flow in the creek was 3,400 feet per second – a volume that would require an increased levee height of 15 feet to adequately contain the creek in its banks. Raising the levees came with an estimated price tag at that time of about $410 million.

“The region’s extensive canal system is vulnerable to failure, more so during excessive storm events due to a lack of significant flood control improvements,” the 2012 report stated. “Deadman Slough, Duck Slough (Mariposa Creek), Miles Creek, and Owens Creek lack adequate capacity to convey 100-year flows according to the Merced County General Plan.”